NFC South win totals: Buy the Buccaneers hype

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With most NFL rosters taking shape, we're revisiting the win totals for every division. On Monday, we broke down the NFL's tightest division, the NFC East; this time, we're taking a look at the explosive NFC South.

For years, the New Orleans Saints have reigned supreme, winning at least 11 games each of the last three seasons. But with Tom Brady moving to Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers could be in for a double-digit win campaign, as well.

Here are the division's win totals from theScore Bet in New Jersey:

New Orleans Saints (10.5)

Is it crazy to suggest 10.5 is too low for this group? The Saints are coming off consecutive 13-win campaigns and added veteran playmakers on both sides of the ball - namely Emmanuel Sanders and Malcolm Jenkins - in what could be Drew Brees' swan song.

The schedule will be a bit tougher this year, but the Saints also played nearly half of the 2019 season without Brees, who's still performing at an elite level. If you want to short the Saints' high win total, be my guest; I won't be joining you.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9)

In most cases, teams with as much hype as the Buccaneers are easy fade candidates. This isn't one of those times.

Tampa Bay's overall roster talent might even be underrated when considering how well this defense played on a per-possession basis a year ago.

Jameis Winston's high turnover rate was the root of most of the Bucs' woes a year ago, which is sure to change this season with Brady under center. A cupcake schedule by oddsmakers' standards helps, too. This should be a double-digit win club, and it's hard to envision a .500 record or worse.

Atlanta Falcons (7.5)

Why do bettors keep falling for this team? The Falcons have gone 7-9 for consecutive years thanks to a flailing defense that progressively declines. Salary cap issues led to a loss of even more talent this offseason, though a few splashy names might convince you otherwise.

The biggest issues lie with Atlanta's pass rush and secondary, a horrendous one-two punch that will try to contain the offensive talent of the NFC South. Expect the Falcons to have a losing record within the division, which will make eight wins hard to come by.

Carolina Panthers (5.5)

If this number was a touch lower, we'd be all over it. Carolina's offense was flawed but showed flashes in 2019, and that was before bringing in Teddy Bridgewater, Robby Anderson, and offensive coordinator Joe Brady to complement Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore.

All that firepower won't mean much, though, if the Panthers can't stop the opposing team, and their defense profiles as one of the worst in the league. Much like Atlanta, that won't play well in this division, so we don't love the over without seeing some defensive fight. But don't be shocked if this group surprises.

Best bet

Buccaneers over 9 wins

I know, it feels like a trap, but value is value. And, for whatever reason, the market hasn't caught up to the most hyped team in football. The Bucs' defense was as efficient as you could hope for in 2019 given rotten field position, and the offense is now built for success.

If you just can't buy in, short the Falcons and their big-name bonanza on offense. They could certainly make a run if their defense is competent, but we prefer the over prices on all three of the other divisional options, which makes Atlanta an easy fade.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.