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The things I'd do to bet a player prop right now are absolutely sickening.
That's why we're looking forward to the 2020 NFL season, with a focus on five players you should buy low or sell high on in terms of props.
Samuel has improved in consecutive years and is fresh off a season during which he recorded 54 catches, 627 yards, and six touchdowns. He was the Carolina Panthers' third-leading receiver behind DJ Moore and Christian McCaffrey. Carolina's two offensive stars are likely the reason why some consider Samuel an afterthought in the team's receiving corps, but he has a ton of potential to exceed his 2020 projections.
The Ohio State product was actually one of the most unlucky wide receivers in the NFL last season (here are some "highlights" of Panthers quarterbacks missing Samuel downfield). He had a 42% uncatchable target rate, which was tied for the sixth-worst mark in the league. That number becomes even more mind-boggling when you consider his 5.9 yards per target and just 1.16 yards per pass route.
New quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will fix that. He was No. 9 in true passer rating, No 4. in true-completion percentage, and No. 2 in play-action percentage last season. The Panthers receivers - and, more specifically, Samuel - will benefit from not playing with a gunslinger who makes so many wild decisions.
Diggs' move from the Minnesota Vikings to the Buffalo Bills will likely hurt his overall numbers. While both offenses are built as run-first units and Diggs should see a similar number of opportunities in a Bills uniform, the change in quarterbacks will pose a problem.
Josh Allen was No. 33 in the NFL in both true-completion percentage and play-action percentage, No. 35 in accuracy rating, and No. 23 in adjusted yards per attempt. Meanwhile, Diggs was No. 3 in yards per target and No. 6 in yards per reception last season. When you pair a bad deep-ball passer with a receiver who can eat up a lot of space on his routes, you're going to take your lumps.
Any momentum Mayfield had following a superb rookie campaign was lost last season. The quarterback fell victim to the dreaded sophomore slump, as he was plagued by a weak offensive line, lack of chemistry with his wide receivers, and miserable scheme. However, Mayfield has shown flashes, and the Cleveland Browns' talent makes it unlikely he flounders for a second straight year.
After being one of the most poised quarterbacks in the pocket in 2018, Mayfield took the fifth-most sacks in the league last year. The Browns beefed up their offensive line with the addition of Jack Conklin, and it also appears the star-studded receiving corps will stay intact following rumors of an Odell Beckham Jr. trade. Additionally, Cleveland brought in yet another solid receiving option in the form of tight end Austin Hooper.
There should be good times ahead under new head coach Kevin Stefanski, who helped the Vikings throw the fewest interceptions in franchise history during his time as quarterbacks coach.
Elliott is an all-around talent who can pad the stat sheet with ease, but his production in the Dallas Cowboys' running game is a bit concerning. It'll always be tough to fade Elliott due to the sheer volume he gets, but he was one of the worst running backs at creating yards in 2019 and is playing behind an offensive line that is no longer elite. He'll find a way to put up numbers in Dallas' pass-happy offense, but I'm not as bullish on Elliott's production in the ground game next season.
All the talk in Arizona is centered around the Cardinals' shiny new wide receiver, DeAndre Hopkins. However, I'm even more excited now about Kirk's outlook. Following a season in which he recorded 68 catches for more than 700 yards and three touchdowns, Kirk's going to draw more one-on-one coverage and friendly matchups throughout the year. He was one of only 10 receivers in the league last year to have a catchable deep-ball rate of worse than 30%. If quarterback Kyler Murray can be even a little bit better in that department, the speedy receiver could top 1,000 yards in 2020.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.