Updated NBA title, MVP, ROY odds: Buy the Clippers, sell the Blazers
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While the NBA All-Star break gives the players a chance to catch their breaths, it also helps bettors reset and get a better gauge on how the markets stack up. Earlier this week, we dove into updated NBA win totals and dissected which teams were over- or underperforming. Today, we'll look at the whole futures market and see if there's any value.
Title odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Bucks | +250 |
| Lakers | +275 |
| Clippers | +350 |
| Celtics | +1400 |
| Rockets | +1400 |
| 76ers | +1600 |
| Nuggets | +2000 |
| Heat | +2000 |
| Raptors | +2000 |
| Jazz | +2000 |
| Mavericks | +3300 |
| Pacers | +6600 |
| Pelicans | +8000 |
| Thunder | +8000 |
| Trail Blazers | +8000 |
| Nets | +10000 |
| Grizzlies | +10000 |
All the Bucks needed was a 46-8 first half to get the credit they deserve. They're now the title favorites at +250 over the Lakers, who had been the chalk since landing Anthony Davis in the offseason.
I'm still high on the Clippers and would continue buying at +350. Despite uncharacteristic losses to Chicago, Minnesota, Atlanta, and Sacramento, the team has played better than its record. I wouldn't worry too much about the Clippers when it matters (see: both prior meetings against the Lakers). Between the starting rotation's star power and their depth, I think they're the best bet on the board.
The disrespect for the Raptors is real. Toronto has the third-best winning percentage in the league yet can still be bought at 20-1. Consider the success the Raptors have had despite enduring multiple injuries to key players. They're a team I wouldn't hate buying.
Friends don't let friends bet on the Trail Blazers. If the playoffs started tomorrow, Portland would be out. It seems as though we've been waiting and waiting for the club to turn it on, to no avail. Not only are the Blazers six games under .500 entering the second half, they're also playing like a 24-win team. It's an attractive number on a team with playmakers, but pass, pass, and, uh, pass.
MVP odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | -400 |
| LeBron James | +800 |
| Luka Doncic | +800 |
| James Harden | +1000 |
| Anthony Davis | +2000 |
| Damian Lillard | +2200 |
| Kawhi Leonard | +2500 |
The MVP race is playing out exactly how I thought it would. I recommended selling LeBron James at 5-1 and tabbing the cutoff for buying Luka Doncic right around 10-1. This is Giannis Antetokounmpo's award to lose, as he's averaging 30.1 points, 13.5 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game on top of a 5.3 VORP and career-high 97 defensive rating, all while piloting a 46-win team. I don't see any value here - those lucky enough to get plus money on the Greek Freak are already planning how to spend their loot.
ROY odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ja Morant | -400 |
| Zion Williamson | +150 |
| Kendrick Nunn | +2800 |
| Rui Hachimura | +3300 |
In no way, shape, or form can I recommend placing actual money on Zion Williamson at a price like +150. As impactful as he's been - he's averaging 22.1 points and 7.5 rebounds in his first 10 games - I don't think a player deserves the award for a 30-something-game sample. It's not as if Ja Morant's been a slouch, either; he's posting 17.6 points, 7.7 assists, and 1.1 steals per game for a team that's currently occupying the final seed in the West.
I'd need a much better number on Williamson to even think about pulling the trigger.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.