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NFL Week 11 underdog plays: Texans, Dolphins, Cardinals

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If Week 11 is anything like Week 10, you should probably just flat bet every underdog on Sunday.

'Dogs went 9-4 against the spread with a resounding eight outright victories last week, taking them to 78-51-1 (60.4%) ATS on the season.

Here are some that should add to that impressive record in Week 11.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

Line: Ravens -4

You can beat the numbers to death on this one if you want, but when you have a quarterback with Deshaun Watson's capabilities, you'll be in every game you play. Seven of the Texans' nine games this season have been decided by just a score, with Houston blowing out their opponents in the other two contests.

Both of these offenses are in the top five in terms of yards per play and yards per game, while the two defenses are tied for 22nd, allowing 5.8 yards per play. The Ravens' unit has had a tougher time at home, allowing 6.3 yards per play at M&T Bank Stadium. Only two teams are allowing more yards per play in front of their own fans. Houston possesses the league's third-best defense against the run, conceding just 84.1 yards per game, while Baltimore ranks eighth at 91.2.

The Texans will certainly key in on the run and force Lamar Jackson to beat them through the air, which he is well-equipped to do. Meanwhile, Watson, who will likely get Will Fuller back for this game, should have plenty of success against a Ravens secondary that has allowed close to 300 yards a game through the air at home, the fourth-worst mark in the NFL. Watson is 10-3-1 ATS in his career as an underdog and finds himself in a good spot to improve on that mark Sunday.

Pick: Texans +4

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Line: Bills -6

We get an inflated line here with the public perception of these two teams still worlds apart. The Dolphins are still remembered as whipping boys despite significantly turning things around following their Week 5 bye. Since then, they lost to the Redskins at the final second, were tied on the road with the Bills and Steelers entering the fourth quarter, and convincingly beat the Jets and Colts, the latter in Indianapolis. Brian Flores deserves a ton of credit for how he's coached up this team, instilling a winning mindset and aggressive mentality. No one has exhibited this attitude more than quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. This week, Fitzpatrick gets a shot at his former team and there's nothing he'd like more than to put a dent in Buffalo's wild-card hopes.

The Bills have plenty of issues on offense, but offensive coordinator Brian Daboll's reluctance to feed running back Devin Singletary has been one of the most baffling coaching tendencies of the season thus far. The rookie is averaging 6.4 yards per carry but has topped eight attempts just once all season. Daboll needs to do more to help his young quarterback, and he has no excuse calling so many passing plays for a team that has largely played with the lead this season. Josh Allen is averaging over 31 attempts per game, which is far too many for a quarterback who struggles with accuracy, completing less than 60% of his passes.

Miami has found a nice rhythm on both sides of the ball and its defense should be able to keep a Buffalo offense still trying to find its identity in check. Fitzpatrick will make some plays with his arm and his legs, putting the Dolphins in a good position to win this game outright.

Pick: Dolphins +6

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Line: 49ers -11.5

Jimmy Garoppolo was 3-for-18 for 59 yards and an interception on Monday against Seattle on throws that traveled at least 10 yards. His 16.7% completion percentage on such attempts was the lowest mark by an NFL quarterback with at least 15 in a game all season. He will once again likely be without both George Kittle and Emmanuel Sanders, and Matt Breida is set to join them on the sidelines. Those three combined for 283 yards - 69% of the 49ers' offense - and two touchdowns against the Cardinals in Week 9.

It will also be interesting to see how the 49ers respond to their first loss of the campaign, following a heartbreaking defeat to the Seahawks on Monday night. This team hasn't had to deal with much adversity this season, but suddenly, they're getting it in spades as they cope with a tough divisional loss and a long list of injuries, including Pro Bowl left tackle Joe Staley.

The 49ers' injuries should significantly hamper their offense, especially through the air. That should result in a heavy dose of Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert. Big plays will be limited for the offense, as the 49ers will have to rely on long drives and stingy defense to grind out a win over a dangerous Cardinals team that continues to improve, and has been a covering machine with Kyler Murray under center.

Pick: Cardinals +11.5

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.

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