Week 12 over/under best bets: Going back to the well with Colorado State
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Every week during the college football season, we'll cover our five best over/under bets. Let's take a look at Week 12:
Air Force at Colorado State
Total: 63
This is a case of playing the over on two offenses whose strengths match up favorably against the weaknesses of the defenses. Air Force's triple-option attack should pick up chunk yards against Colorado State's defense, which ranks No. 111 in the nation against the rush. The Rams, meanwhile, should pick apart a Falcons unit that's much worse against the pass (No. 55 in the country) than the run (No. 9).
Colorado State's been a personal favorite to play over the total, and Saturday is another ideal spot.
Pick: Over
Central Michigan at Ball State
Total: 59.5
Central Michigan is slowly finding its footing offensively. After scoring 15 or fewer points in three of their first four games against FBS opponents, the Chippewas head into Saturday averaging 38 points over their last five contests. They rank inside the top 40 nationally with 6 yards per play and sit just below 7 over their last three. They should have their way against Ball State's defense, which hasn't been able to stop a competent offense yet.
The Cardinals' offense has also been trending in the right direction. It's been a middle-of-the-pack unit in 2019 but has been better of late, averaging 7.1 yards per play over its last three.
Pick: Over
USC at Cal
Total: 48.5
I like the matchup for California's secondary this weekend. For the second consecutive week, its task will be to stop an Air Raid offense. The Golden Bears' bend-but-don't-break approach against Washington State worked last Saturday, as they allowed just 20 points despite quarterback Anthony Gordon going 45-for-58. Cal's still a team you can play under on, as it's 7-2 to the total this season and 14-3 in its last 17 in-conference games.
Pick: Under
Appalachian State at Georgia State
Total: 62
This would have been the most underrated game on the docket had Georgia State's starting quarterback, Dan Ellington, been healthy. It's no knock against backup Cornelious Brown but the downgrade is substantial, and it's unlikely the Panthers have enough to trade scores with Appalachian State.
Perhaps the biggest storyline for the Mountaineers is their defense, which has allowed just 3.9 yards per play over the last three games. App State is trending under the total and Georgia State figures to be behind the eight ball with a backup QB. This is too many points.
Pick: Under
Hawaii at UNLV
Total: 74
Hawaii's gone over plenty this season, and I'm not sure the market can push this up to a number that's out of range. The defense has allowed 7.1 yards per play over the last three and 6.7 overall this season. Fortunately, the offense has been able to respond, ranking No. 16 in the country in scoring at 39.3 points per game. UNLV has been just as bad defensively, allowing 37 or more points to four of its five conference opponents in 2019.
Pick: Over
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.