NFL Week 11 over/under bets: Saints' offense will bounce back
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Each week of the NFL season, we'll highlight some of the best bets on the over/under. Coming off back-to-back 1-2 weeks, we're still 18-12 on the year with some tasty totals on the slate this week.
Here are our best bets on totals for Week 11.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total: 50.5
The Saints' offense was inescapably bad in last week's stunning loss to the Falcons, scoring just nine points against what had been one of the league's worst units. Don't expect another letdown from Sean Payton's crew.
Since he took over in 2006, the Saints have scored in the single digits just four times. They've followed up three of those with an over, scoring an average of 34.8 points. When they score fewer than 14 points in a game, they're 15-6 to the over in the encore, even with an average total just a tick below Sunday's high mark.
Tampa Bay is the league's best over team since 2018 (16-8-1) because of a porous pass defense that ranks 27th this year in DVOA. The Bucs are riding a seven-game over streak with an average combined score of 65.3 points, and the Saints' offense is among the best they've faced. Bet against consecutive letdowns for New Orleans.
Pick: Over 50.5
New England Patriots at Philadelphia Eagles
Total: 44.5
The Patriots' defense got exposed two weeks ago in prime time when the Ravens ran for 210 yards and three scores and rendered New England's vaunted secondary mostly irrelevant. But that Baltimore team is much better on the ground than Philly, and Bill Belichick is in the perfect spot to dial up his defense.
As road chalk after a loss, the Patriots under Belichick are 22-8-1 (73.3%) to the under, with a remarkable 12-0-1 run dating back to 2012. Translation? When the venerable coach loses, he battens down the hatches on defense. New England has also allowed 16.4 points per game off its regular-season bye, going 12-8 to the under.
The Eagles' secondary has been shaky this year, but the Patriots are as weak as ever in the receiving game and will likely lean on defense and the short passing game as short road favorites. Bet low on a modest total for New England's historic defense, which is 6-2-1 to the under this year.
Pick: Under
Denver Broncos at Minnesota Vikings
Total: 39.5
This game capitalizes on everything an NFL under bettor should love: Mike Zimmer in a comfortable spot, the Broncos on the road, and a cellar-low total that has been a cheat code in the totals market this year.
Let's start with Zimmer, whose Vikings are 10-5 to the under in their last 15 games as home favorites and 17-10-1 during his tenure against teams with losing records, showcasing his conservative side. Denver, meanwhile, is 6-2-1 to the under in Vic Fangio's debut season with an 8-0-1 run in road games dating back to last season.
When oddsmakers expect a low-scoring game, trust their judgment. Games with a total of 40 or lower are a remarkable 20-4 (83.3%) to the under this season, including 3-1 when either of these teams are involved. When an under is this obvious, you've got to take it, even on a low number.
Pick: Under
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.