TNF player props: Best bets for Steelers-Browns
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Week 11 of the NFL season opens on Thursday when the Cleveland Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers. Here are the best player prop bets for the prime-time clash.
Mason Rudolph over 32.5 passing attempts
Running back James Conner missing some time, coupled with the Steelers playing in a negative game state, has equated to more passing attempts for Rudolph of late. The second-year quarterback had 27 and 28 attempts in his first two starts, respectively, but has at least 35 in each of his last three appearances. The most recent two came with Conner on the sideline, and the other was three weeks ago when the Steelers dug themselves an early hole against the Dolphins. Conner returned to practice this week, but with the Steelers getting points on Thursday, they should again find themselves in more passing situations. I think we'll see another game with a lot of volume from Rudolph.
James Washington longest reception over 22.5 yards
Cleveland's secondary is solid when it's at full health. The team's had some difficulties getting Greedy Williams, Denzel Ward, and Damarious Randall on the field at the same time, but all three are good to go for Week 11. However, offenses have been able to exploit the Browns' defensive backs in certain ways. For instance, Cleveland's struggled to guard opposing No. 3 wide receivers. From a fantasy perspective, the Browns' defense is surrendering the most points to WR3's this season; they're also No. 19 in explosive pass rate and No. 21 in yards per completion. That could mean a big day's in store for Washington, who has 14 catches and 23 targets over the last four games, with at least one catch of 20 yards or more in each contest.
Nick Chubb over 81.5 rushing yards
Cleveland should be able to run the ball on Thursday. Pittsburgh's in the back half of the league in success rate allowed despite playing a rather easy schedule. The strength of the Steelers' defense is the pass rush and secondary, so I don't think Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens is going to put more strain on quarterback Baker Mayfield than he has to. Chubb's gone over this number in six of the last seven and could very well cross the century mark for the fourth time in the last five.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.