NFL Week 10 over/under bets: Cardinals-Bucs sees inflated total
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Each week of the NFL season, we'll highlight some of the best bets on the over/under. Here are our best bets on totals for Week 10.
Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total: 52
This looks like a shootout on paper, right? I think we're being misled with both teams, however.
The Cardinals and Buccaneers have each played in a handful of barn burners this season, but perhaps they weren't by design. Both of their offenses are in the back half of offensive DVOA this year. So, yeah, each team has produced frequent splash plays, but both units have actually had trouble moving the ball consistently. It's been particularly tough to trust the Cardinals to score when they're not trailing by a wide margin and the 4.5-point spread suggests this game will be played rather tight.
There should be some points scored in this one, but the total is a tad inflated based on recent box scores.
Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans
Total: 48
One of these days, Ryan Tannehill will come back down to earth. Yet, the sand in the hourglass is dropping at a snail's pace.
The Titans' offense actually has a pulse with the former Dolphins starter taking the reins from Marcus Mariota, but it's certainly fluky. Two weeks ago against the Buccaneers, Tennessee put up 27 points despite posting just 245 yards of offense. Last Sunday against the Panthers, the Titans registered 451 yards, though Tannehill was able to pick up chunks in the second half with the team trailing by double digits.
Kansas City's defense might be good? After ranking No. 27 in the league in defensive DVOA last season, the Chiefs enter Week 10 at No. 11. In terms of opposing offenses, they've played the league's second-toughest schedule yet have quietly clocked in a top-five passing defense. This could arguably be Tannehill's toughest test.
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys
Total: 48
I think we're starting to see some cracks in Minnesota's defense. The secondary has allowed an average of 10.2 yards per completion over the last three games despite playing a weak schedule. Now the Vikings have to play a Cowboys offense that paces the NFL in passing success rate and has the kind of balance that can set up shots down the field to a plethora of playmakers.
Dallas' defense has had its moments, but it's likely only a matter of time until it cracks. So far, in terms of opposing offenses, the Cowboys have played the third-easiest schedule. Want to know the only two teams in the NFL who rank in the top five in both explosive rush and pass rate?
The Cowboys and the Vikings.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.