Skip to content

Week 11 over/under best bets: Only 1 option with Northwestern

Icon Sportswire / Getty

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

Every week during the college football season, we'll cover our five best over/under bets. Let's take a look at Week 11:

Purdue at Northwestern

Total: 39

I have no idea how you can play Northwestern over the total unless the number dips to the low 30s. The Wildcats have scored 15 points or fewer in six straight and are 6-2 to the under this season, with one of those coming in a 52-3 loss to Ohio State. You can't trust the offense - Northwestern's 3.5 yards per play is second-worst in the country to only Old Dominion - and the defense has held its own, ranking in the top half of the nation in almost every category.

Meanwhile, Purdue is on its third starting quarterback of the season as the injury bug continues to bite. It might seem square to continue playing Northwestern unders, but there's no data that supports this game goes over the total.

Pick: Under

Temple at South Florida

Total: 49

South Florida's defensive statistics look nice on the surface. The Bulls rank No. 17 in the nation in passing yards allowed per game and in the top half in total yards allowed. But take another look at their schedule and it starts to make more sense. South Florida has played a majority of run-heavy offenses such as Navy, Wisconsin, and Georgia Tech, or below-average units such as East Carolina and UConn, as well as BYU with a backup quarterback. Temple is rather balanced offensively but ranks No. 38 in the country in passing yards per game. This one doesn't necessarily feel like a shootout, but there should be enough to get over the total.

Pick: Over

Western Kentucky at Arkansas

Total: 52.5

Western Kentucky had a string of unders but comes into Saturday going over the total in back-to-back games. The Hilltoppers average fewer than five yards per play this season but are finding their groove of late, posting an average of 5.6 during the last three. They face an SEC defense this weekend, though it's unlikely Arkansas scares anyone at this point. The Razorbacks allowed 34 and 31 points to Colorado State and San Jose State, respectively, earlier this season and come into Week 11 allowing an average north of 50 points per game in their last three. Arkansas is No. 7 in the country in pass-play rate, while Western Kentucky is No. 27. This total's extremely low for two offenses that will be chucking plenty.

Play: Over

Utah State at Fresno State

Total: 58.5

Remember when Utah State was the No. 2 scoring offense in the country last season? Well, congratulations to head coach Gary Andersen, who found a way to ruin all of that. Once regarded as a rising draft prospect, quarterback Jordan Love's stock is now down the drain. The Aggies have scored more than 14 points just once in their last four games and are averaging fewer than four touchdowns per contest after nearly touching 50 points per game last season. Now that's how you make a first second impression!

Now, onto the Bulldogs, who I've been keen on the last two weeks. But I'm leery of expecting them to score after watching the Hawaii game. The offensive play-calling is extremely limited: the Bulldogs either run the read option or throw up a prayer down the field. They have been lucky to move the ball of late and benefited from playing the defenses of teams such as Air Force, Colorado State, UNLV, and the aforementioned Hawaii during the last month.

This one's fun on paper, but the offenses are seriously flawed.

Pick: Under

Appalachian State at South Carolina

Total: 51

I think the offenses will struggle to move the ball in this one. Appalachian State is running on 60% of its plays this season, which falls right into the lap of a South Carolina defense that allows just 3.9 yards per carry this season. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks' offense has been one of the worst Power Five units in the country, averaging just 4.8 yards per play.

Pick: Under

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

Daily Newsletter

Get the latest trending sports news daily in your inbox