NFL Week 10 parlay: Bucs, Giants, MIN/DAL under
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Week 9 was a good lesson: Never put your hard-earned money on Adam Gase.
The Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles did their parts for us in last week's parlay, but the New York Jets capitulated at the hands of the Miami Dolphins.
Fear not, it's back to winning ways in Week 10.
Buccaneers ML -220 (vs. Cardinals)
The Cardinals have passed the eye test over the past five weeks and will be a popular underdog play here as a result. They kept it within a field goal against the undefeated 49ers on Thursday Night Football and now get a Buccaneers team that's lost four straight and is without a win in two home games this season. Now isn't the time to be buying in on the Cardinals, though.
Arizona's defense ranks 30th in the NFL, giving up 407.6 yards per game while allowing a 71.96 completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks. Those quarterbacks have a passer rating of 118.4 against Arizona, the highest figure in the NFL. That doesn't bode well for the Cardinals as they travel across the country to face a Bucs offense that ranks top 10 in both passing yards per game and pass-play percentage and third in yards per completion.
Regardless of how Kyler Murray and the offense fair, it's hard to see how Arizona will have any success slowing Jameis Winston and Tampa Bay. Jimmy Garoppolo just roasted the Cardinals for 317 yards and four touchdown passes - both season highs for the 49ers quarterback - and San Francisco boasts the 22nd-ranked passing attack in the league. In four games against top-10 passing offenses this season, the Cardinals have allowed 1,354 total yards (338.5 average) and 11 touchdowns. Those brutal figures should have Bucs backers - as well as Mike Evans and Chris Godwin fantasy owners - licking their chops.
Giants ML -130 (at Jets)
The Giants might be one of the more square plays on the board this week, but how could anyone seriously back the Jets right now? This is similar to Dan Quinn's situation in Atlanta - the head coach has lost the team. But at least Quinn has proven his worth as a coach and leader in this league. What has Adam Gase done?
The Jets have personnel issues as well, but there's enough talent on their roster to be better than 1-7. Freddie Kitchens is doing a better job in Cleveland than Gase is in New York, which speaks volumes about the latter's ineptitude right now. It's visible on the field that the players have quit on him - it's almost as if they're trying to get their coach fired. The problems run deep with these Jets right now.
Firing Gase wouldn't solve everything, of course. The Jets' 37 sacks allowed this season are second-most in the NFL. Sam Darnold is throwing from a clean pocket on just 58.7% of dropbacks, good for 29th among 31 qualifying quarterbacks. And as bad as they are at protecting Darnold, they equally struggle to rush the opposing passer. The Jets have managed just 13 sacks this season - only three teams have recorded fewer. Daniel Jones should have much more time to throw than his counterpart, while Saquon Barkley will be far more effective running the ball than a banged-up Le'Veon Bell, who's yet to top 70 yards on the ground in a game this season.
Vikings/Cowboys under 48
Both these offenses have been clicking lately, but this is a very inflated total for a game featuring two of the league's best defensive units. The Cowboys have put up 37 points in consecutive games against a pair of underwhelming defenses in the Eagles and Giants. It's a similar story for the Vikings, who have averaged 30 points a game over the last five weeks; Minnesota also played the Eagles and Giants, as well as the Lions, Redskins, and Chiefs - all of whom rank in the NFL's bottom half in scoring defense.
This contest will be a step up for two offenses facing the league's fourth- (Vikings) and fifth-ranked (Cowboys) scoring defenses. Both defensive units are also top 10 in red-zone percentage, making it very tough for opposing teams to find the end zone.
Combine all that with the fact these two teams love to run the ball - Minnesota ranks third in run-play percentage while Dallas sits seventh - and this contest has all the makings of a tight, low-scoring affair. This total should be closer to 40.
Full parlay: Bucs ML, Giants ML, MIN/DAL under 48 ($50 to win $195.64)
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.