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3 horses to watch at the Kentucky Derby

Michael Reaves / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Justify is listed as the 3-1 morning line favorite for the 144th Kentucky Derby, but if history tells us anything, it’s anybody’s race when those 20 horses burst from the gate Saturday evening. That’s why it's important to look past the obvious candidates when betting and search for clues to unheralded options who might spring the upset.

Here are three outsiders to consider:

Hofburg (20-1)

One horse getting a lot of buzz this week is Hofburg. Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, Hofburg comes into the race light on experience but has been really impressing in the leadup to Saturday. The colt finished second behind Audible in the Florida Derby in March and is bred to get the 1 1/4-mile distance.

One clue this might be the horse to back: Unlike many other U.S.-based trainers, Mott seems immune to “Derby fever”, having only run seven horses in the race in his four decades saddling. So, when he arrives in Louisville with a horse in the race, take notice.

Flameaway (30-1)

Flameaway lacks the brilliance of Justify, Audible, and Magnum Moon, but has shown incredible determination and will to win, coming up short in his last two starts - the Sam F. Davis Stakes and the Blue Grass Stakes.

The Canadian-bred colt did all the hard work in the Blue Grass but just relinquished the lead in the final strides to Good Magic. Look for this colt to give that same effort Saturday and perhaps pick up some of the spoils.

Mendelssohn (5-1)

Historically, the winners of the UAE Derby, a Kentucky Derby prep race run in Dubai, have not fared well at Churchill on the first Saturday in May. In fact, no winner of that race has ever won at Kentucky. So, ordinarily, Irish-based Mendelssohn, this year’s winner of the UAE Derby, would be a toss. Except that Mendelssohn’s win in the race was so dominant - by more than 18 lengths - that it’s hard to ignore.

Also, he’s bred for the Derby: Kentucky-sired and -raised, the colt was bought by Ireland’s Coolmore group for $3 million at auction as a yearling. He is a half-brother to two-time Breeders’ Cup champion Beholder, and the popular sire Into Mischief. Despite spending most of his life overseas, it’s fair to say Mendelssohn was born to win this race.

(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)

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