CFB national title betting: Presenting a case for the top 6 contenders

While the college football season kicked off over the weekend with five Week 0 matchups, the 2025 campaign truly begins this week when all of the contenders open their seasons.

We've already touched on the Heisman odds, our major conference predictions, and picks to make or miss the College Football Playoff. Now it's time to outline the national title picture. We broke down the contenders and why each team will and won't win the championship and also discussed some sleeper teams.

Contenders' title odds

🏈 Check out the full CFP odds on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Ohio State (+550)

Why it can win: Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is the nation's best playmaker. Along with Ohio State's other dangerous weapons, he'll make inexperienced quarterback Julian Sayin's life easier. Ohio State is a perennial contender with a stacked roster of blue-chip prospects and transfers at every position.

Why it won't: It's hard to repeat, and it's even more challenging with an unproven quarterback. Sayin has never started and only appeared in four games as a true freshman last season.

Ohio State also lost major pieces on its defensive line, including key captains who were integral in making a championship run after losing to Michigan. The Buckeyes will win a ton of games, but losing leaders at important positions could be too much to overcome in their pursuit of the title.

Texas (+550)

Why it can win: If Arch Manning is as good as advertised, Texas' offense will be unstoppable. However, the Longhorns' defense is their real strength. Texas had the nation's third-best scoring defense last season and replenished its line while drastically improving its secondary.

Why it won't: Manning hasn't played a ton of meaningful football, so he should be expected to make normal first-year starter mistakes. Texas also lost eight starters from its elite offense. Head coach Steve Sarkisian recruited high-end talent to fill those holes, but transfers aren't always home-run signings. The running game is also a potential weakness with new faces on the offensive line and no emerging star at running back. A feeble run game puts even more pressure on Manning.

Penn State (+650)

Why it can win: Drew Allar is in his third season as the starter and made leaps as a passer last season. He's a projected first-round pick and a preseason Heisman candidate. Penn State doesn't even need to rely on his arm too much with the best running back duo in the nation. The Nittany Lions' weakest unit is their run defense following key departures to their front seven, but a new, respected defensive coordinator should ease those concerns. That's nitpicking a group that's second in the AP Poll for a reason.

Why it won't: James Franklin is the coach. It's that simple. He's 1-15 against AP top-five teams and 4-20 against the top 10. Whether it's preparation, in-game management, or just getting consistently outcoached by his peers, Franklin rarely wins against great opponents. Penn State is as talented as any team in the country, but until Franklin consistently wins big games - which he must for Penn State to hoist the trophy - there's no reason to trust him.

Georgia (+800)

Why it can win: Nate Frazier should break out as a top running back in the country. Georgia's offense must rely on its running game to move the chains, and Frazier's freshman season provides reason for optimism that the formula can work. Plus Georgia added significant wide receiver depth, including transfer Zachariah Branch. With a young quarterback under center, Georgia has the pieces in the backfield and on the outside to relieve the pressure on its signal-caller.

Why it won't: Kirby Smart is relying on a ton of young pieces to grow up quickly in a physical and deep conference. Quarterback Gunner Stockton is entering his first year as a starter. He can run the ball effectively, but there are still concerns about whether he can win games for Georgia with his arm.

The Bulldogs' offensive line was a disaster last season, and who knows if it'll be much better after replacing four starters. They also lack defensive line depth. It's tough to win with youth in the SEC.

Alabama (+900)

Why it can win: Although Alabama had a disappointing first season under head coach Kalen DeBoer, the Crimson Tide returns many critical pieces from last year's squad, including NFL-ready receivers and offensive linemen. The defensive front should also be better this season as it brings back many key contributors.

Why it won't: Ty Simpson patiently waited at Alabama for three seasons before he was finally named the starter this summer. The problem is that he has practically no experience. He's a former five-star recruit and Alabama has plenty of talented wide receivers, but he'll be thrown into the fire immediately.

Clemson (+900)

Why it can win: This is Dabo Swinney's most complete team since 2020. Clemson has the right pieces in the right places, starting with Cade Klubnik, a Heisman candidate who's the most trustworthy quarterback in the country. He threw for over 3,600 yards, 36 touchdowns, and just six interceptions last season. Klubnik is surrounded by dangerous pass-catchers and protected by a steady offensive line. On the other side of the ball, the Tigers' deep and experienced defensive line should frequently disrupt opposing quarterbacks.

Why it won't: Although they open with LSU and close with South Carolina, the Tigers' schedule isn't as difficult as those of some contenders in the SEC and Big Ten. Those programs might be more prepared for a playoff after competing in stronger conferences.

Sleepers' title odds

🏈 Check out the full CFP odds on ESPN BET and theScore Bet here

Following successful seasons, Notre Dame and Oregon lost many pivotal contributors, including their starting quarterbacks. Marcus Freeman and Dan Lanning are two of the best recruiters in the nation, but both teams are relying on new and younger pieces.

The Ducks and Fighting Irish have relatively easy schedules, particularly the latter, so they should be in the College Football Playoff. However, it's hard to imagine either of those teams winning the title.

Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is good enough to lead LSU to the promised land, and head coach Brian Kelly secured the top transfer class. But seven of LSU's 12 games are against preseason ranked opponents. Still, LSU has received the fourth-most money to win the title at ESPN BET and theScore Bet.

South Carolina and Florida are also considered contenders because of star quarterbacks LaNorris Sellers and DJ Lagway, respectively.

Although Michigan should improve on its disastrous 8-5 record, it's starting true freshman Bryce Underwood at quarterback. Earning double-digit wins should be the Wolverines' goal for now, not competing for a national championship.

Sam Oshtry is a sports writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.

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