CFB Week 12 betting preview: Can Georgia survive must-win vs. Tennessee?

As the season winds down and the playoff puzzle begins to take shape, a few consequential matchups remain in the final three weeks of the regular season. We're focusing on three of them this week.

No. 23 Clemson @ No. 18 Pittsburgh (+10, O/U 53.5)

Neither Clemson nor Pittsburgh controls its destiny. Both must win the ACC to earn a trip to the College Football Playoff. However, Miami and SMU have an inside track to the ACC championship. Clemson and Pittsburgh must win out and need some good fortune. The loser of Saturday's contest is officially out of the race.

Case for Clemson

• After an unexpected 7-0 start, Pittsburgh has been exposed as a mediocre team that benefited from a bad schedule. The Panthers have lost two straight to SMU and Virginia.
• Clemson can beat opponents with its run game, which averages almost 200 yards per game, or with a steady pass game. Pittsburgh has a solid run defense and a poor pass defense.
• Quarterback Cade Klubnik has had a rough past two weeks, but he's been solid for most of the season and usually takes care of the football. He should get back on track against Pitt.

Case for Pittsburgh

• Quarterback Eli Holstein left last week's game with a head injury, and his status for Saturday is undetermined. Without him, Pitt has no chance to keep it close.
• Pitt has an average rushing attack and a shaky defense. The Panthers, projected to finish at the bottom of the ACC, got off to a storybook start - but reality has kicked in. Pitt doesn't have the talent to compete with Clemson.

Trends/Insights

• Pittsburgh is 6-3 ATS, while Clemson is 5-4.
• Clemson is 2-1 ATS as an away favorite, but Pitt is 4-2 ATS at home.
• Pittsburgh is 29-35-1 ATS at home under Pat Narduzzi.
• Most bettors are on the underdog to cover the spread, with 60% of the handle (money wagered) and 56% of the bets on Pittsburgh +10 at theScore Bet/ESPN Bet.

Best bet - Clemson -10

Pittsburgh is closer to the team it's been recently compared to how it looked during its red-hot start. Clemson must win its remaining games to give itself a chance, which should start with a dominant win in Pittsburgh.

No. 7 Tennessee @ No. 3 Georgia (-10, O/U 48.5)

Georgia fell out of the latest College Football Playoff bracket following its loss to Ole Miss, meaning it must win out to be considered for a spot in the playoff. The Bulldogs' only remaining challenging test is Saturday against Tennessee. Kirby Smart's squad is still -450 to make the playoff.

Case for Tennessee

• Tennessee is in first place in the SEC with just one loss, meaning a second loss wouldn't be disqualifying.
• The Vols have an impressive win over Alabama but have had a lackluster schedule beyond that. Their lone loss was to Arkansas. Tennessee could be on the outskirts with another loss as potentially six two-loss SEC teams battle for a playoff spot. With a win this weekend, Tennessee almost certainly punches its ticket.
• Here's the bad news for Tennessee: Quarterback Nico Iamaleava is in concussion protocol, and his status for Saturday is uncertain. It's hard to imagine a backup quarterback going into Athens and upsetting the Bulldogs.
• Tennessee relies primarily on its rushing attack, which leads the SEC in yards per game. However, it still needs a reliable signal-caller to beat Georgia.

Case for Georgia

• Would any opponent want to face Georgia at home after a brutal loss? The Bulldogs are significantly more talented than Tennessee, which is worse than its record indicates.
• Ole Miss smacked Georgia last weekend to hand it its second loss this season and its first defeat to a program other than Alabama since 2020.
• Georgia's defense is equipped to stop Tennessee's run game with elite talent on its defensive line.
• The Bulldogs can't get anything going on the ground offensively, and that won't change against Tennessee's rush defense, the SEC's second-best. However, if Carson Beck can avoid throwing interceptions, Georgia will successfully move the ball through the air.

Trends/Insights

• Georgia doesn't lose often, but it's 12-3 straight up after a loss and 9-6 ATS under Smart.
• The Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS this season and 0-3 at home, while the Vols are 5-4.
• Tennessee is 1-4 ATS as a road underdog under Josh Heupel.
• Georgia is just 9-15-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2020.
• More than 70% of bets and 56% of the handle are on Tennessee to cover the double-digit spread.
• The overwhelming majority of bets (88%) and the handle (96%) are on the under (48.5).

Best bet - Georgia -10

There's too much uncertainty surrounding Tennessee with its quarterback situation in flux. The Vols have a daunting defense, but that won't matter if they can't consistently score. Georgia will come out extra motivated with its season on the line following a loss. I'm not betting against Smart in that situation.

Utah @ Colorado (-11.5, O/U 45.5)

The media attention around Colorado died down, but the Buffaloes heated up. Colorado is in a firm position to earn a trip to the Big 12 title game if it wins its final three games. The Buffs are +130 to win the Big 12 and earn a trip to the College Football Playoff.

Case for Utah

• Utah could've easily won last week against BYU and spoiled the Cougars' perfect season. Utah's athletic director hounded the officials following the game because he believed they played a significant part in Utah's last-second loss.
• Regardless, Utah competed amid a disastrous stretch and a disappointing season. The Utes have lost five straight after a 4-0 start.
• Utah's problems are all on the Big 12's third-worst scoring offense.
• The Utes have the conference's best scoring defense, holding opponents to 17 points per game.
• Colorado has a high-powered offensive attack with NFL-caliber weapons, but Utah's only chance to compete is with its defense.

Case for Colorado

• Colorado has won six of its last seven, averaging 37 points per game in those six wins.
• It has the Heisman favorite in Travis Hunter, who's playing - and excelling - on both sides of the ball.
• The Buffs are a pass-heavy offense, averaging the second-most passing yards per game in the Big 12. Meanwhile, their running game is nonexistent.
• Colorado is one of the hottest groups in the country and appears on a mission to play for a conference championship.

Trends/Insights

• Colorado is 7-2 ATS and 3-1 at home.
• Utah is 3-6 ATS and 1-3 on the road.
• Four of the last five Colorado games have gone over the total.
• Bettors have loved Colorado all season, and this week's no different, with 68% of bets and 81% of the handle on the Buffs to cover.
• However, bettors are split on the total, with 66% of the bets on the over but 82% of the handle on the under.

Best bet - Utah +11.5

Deion Sanders deserves credit for turning around Colorado's once-lost season. However, now all the pressure is on the Buffs to win their remaining three games. Utah is undergoing a grueling stretch despite keeping it close against BYU. The Utes are equipped to limit Colorado's explosive pass game with the Big 12's second-best pass defense. Colorado should win at home, but a double-digit spread is too much.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.