CFB title game Pros vs. Joes: Bettors love Alabama as big favorite over Ohio State
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It may not be the title game we all expected before Ohio State blew out Clemson in last week's semifinal. Yet even with the Buckeyes' performance in that contest, bettors love Alabama (-8.5, 75.5) to cover the big number in the title match - much to the chagrin of sportsbooks.
The Crimson Tide opened as 7.5-point favorites and were immediately targeted by sharps and public bettors alike, who wagered five times as much money on Alabama at that number. The splits were similar at 8, prompting books to nudge it even more to 8.5.
The scales have been more balanced at that value, with sharps nibbling at Ohio State +8.5 to balance out the strong public interest in the Crimson Tide. However, activity is picking up on Alabama as kickoff nears, and books can't afford much more money on the favorite before bumping the spread even higher.
"Overall, we’re about 4-to-1 long on money and 2-to-1 long on tickets to Alabama," said Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader. "We’re currently going to need Ohio State pretty good."
That's a position that shouldn't scare oddsmakers too much if recent history is taken into account. When LSU blew out Clemson as a 4.5-point favorite a year ago, it was the first time a favorite had covered in the national title game since 2012, with underdogs going 6-0 against the spread and 3-3 straight up in that stretch.
Four of those ATS wins came at the expense of Alabama, which has been the favorite in four of the last five title games and has lost all of them against the number. The Crimson Tide have also dropped four straight ATS in playoff matchups and are 3-7 ATS all-time in the College Football Playoff, dating back to their 2015 loss to the eventual champion Buckeyes (+8) in the semifinal.
Fittingly, the one area where bettors are playing Ohio State is on the moneyline - somewhat expected in a championship game since bettors tend to lay the points on the favorite and take the underdog on the moneyline.
Sure enough, the Buckeyes (+250) have seen three times as many bets to win outright, but the money wagered is nearly even on both sides, suggesting bettors are confident enough in Alabama (-300) to lay the big price with little return.
As for the total - which is currently the fifth-highest of any game this season - bettors are split right down the middle. The total briefly flirted with 76 before returning to 75.5, and while twice as many tickets have come on the under, the average over bet has been double the amount.
The total appears to be set where it is, as does the point spread, but this number could get adjusted to 9 if the Crimson Tide money trends stronger than it does now, Rood said. However, he doesn't expect a move more drastic than that.
"I don’t think it’ll go above 10, and I don’t think it’ll drop below 7," Rood said. "I think it’s probably right where it’s going to be."
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.