Alabama-Ohio State game props: Who to buy, sell for MVP
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The national championship game between Alabama and Ohio State takes place Monday. We've already gone through our betting preview and player prop bets, so we'll complete the cycle with some game props.
Here are some of the best markets on the board to consider.
MVP
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| QB Mac Jones (ALA) | +300 |
| QB Justin Fields (OSU) | +425 |
| WR DeVonta Smith (ALA) | +500 |
| RB Trey Sermon (OSU) | +800 |
| WR Jaylen Waddle (ALA) | +1600 |
| WR Chris Olave (OSU) | +1800 |
| WR Garrett Wilson (OSU) | +2000 |
| WR John Metchie III (ALA) | +2000 |
| RB Master Teague (OSU) | +2000 |
| TE Jeremy Ruckert (OSU) | +2200 |
| RB Brian Robinson (ALA) | +3300 |
| TE Jahleel Billingsley (ALA) | +3300 |
| TE Miller Forristall (ALA) | +3300 |
Only displaying players with odds shorter than 50-1
Buy - Mac Jones (+300)
Jones is projected to produce something in the neighborhood of 380 yards and 26 completions. Ohio State ranks No. 10 in the country in yards per rush attempt allowed. Alabama will probably want to move the ball through the air, which makes this is a solid pickup at 3-1.
Buy - Trey Sermon (+800)
If Ohio State wins, the ground game will have been crucial. The offensive line has been forced into some reshuffling but hasn't skipped a beat. Sermon's been scalding-hot over his last three contests, averaging 212 rushing yards with four total touchdowns.
Sell - John Metchie III (+2000)
Metchie is an attractive option as a home run hitter. He's averaged 17.7 yards per completion and could have some targets coming his way if the Buckeyes focus on taking Heisman-winning receiver DeVonta Smith out of the game.
However, I can't get on board with this number despite the potential payout.
The sophomore has only led the team in receiving once all year and will have to fight even harder for the spotlight with star pass-catchers Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson on the opposite sideline.
When it's all said and done, Metchie might be the fifth- or sixth-best skill player on the field Monday night.
Race to (points)
| Points | Ohio State | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | +138 | -188 |
| 15 | +162 | -225 |
| 20 | +162 | -240 |
| 25 | +200 | -250 |
| 30 | +260 | -250 |
| 35 | +375 | -220 |
| 40 | +400 | -140 |
Race to 10 points - Ohio State (+138)
The sample size is small, but Ohio State has come out with some killer game plans as an underdog. Last year, the Buckeyes raced out to a 16-0 lead over Clemson. Last week, in a rematch against the Tigers, they went up 21-14 and never looked back en route to a 49-28 rout.
Alabama's struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks and high tempos this season. The Buckeyes certainly have the firepower to match pace on the scoreboard, boasting one of the country's deepest supporting casts. Things might not pan out over four quarters, but the chance that head coach Ryan Day schemes up some more early magic makes this is a nice plus-EV play on the Buckeyes to reach 10 points first.
Money line/Total result
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| Alabama ML & Over 75.5 | +137 |
| Alabama ML & Under 75.5 | +150 |
| Ohio State & Under 75.5 | +425 |
| Ohio State & Over 75.5 | +600 |
Ohio State & Under 75.5 (+425)
Alabama's offense is otherworldly, but how much of its success can be attributed to the schedule? The SEC wasn't as defense-heavy as it usually is, and the Tide only played one defense (Georgia) this season currently inside the top 15 in DF+. Ohio State, which ranks No. 15, will be their second-toughest test.
I don't think there's a team in the country that can beat Alabama in a shootout. The only way Ohio State wins is if it can keep its rushing attack - which has averaged 320.5 yards over its last four games - on the field and Alabama's offense off of it.
If the Buckeyes win, the game goes under. That's worth a flier at a price north of 4-1.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.