CFP title game betting preview: Alabama signs off with a bang

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Two powerhouses meet in the College Football Playoff title game Monday when No. 1 Alabama faces Big Ten champion Ohio State.

Will the Crimson Tide add more hardware to their trophy case, or do the Buckeyes net their first CFP victory since the 2014-15 season?

Here's every piece of info bettors need before the biggest game of the year.

Odds

Spread: Alabama -8.5
Total: 75.5

Alabama opened as a seven-point favorite with a total of 76. Bettors moved on the Crimson Tide and the under early, pushing the numbers to -8.5 and 75.5, respectively.

What to know about Ohio State

The Buckeyes went 5-0 during the regular season before sneaking past Northwestern in the conference championship. Ohio State earned another trip to the playoff and avenged last year's semifinal loss to Clemson with a resounding 49-28 victory.

That 21-point win over the Tigers was the Buckeyes' fourth over in the last five games.

However, how will OF+'s No. 2 offense perform against an SEC defense, especially considering Justin Fields' status?

The star dual-threat quarterback suffered a nasty injury in the first half against Clemson but gutted it out, posting 385 passing yards and six scores. If Ohio State can avoid falling into an early hole, it should utilize the ground game both as an aid to Fields and as a means to slow down Alabama's potent offense.

The Buckeyes have run rampant recently, recording an average of 320.5 rushing yards per game over their last four. Their offensive line hasn't skipped a beat despite constant changes over the last month.

Head coach Ryan Day has had his fair share of struggles against teams with winning records, covering just five of the last six.

What to know about Alabama

As elite as LSU's offense was last year in the program's run to the title, this current Alabama squad is arguably better.

The Crimson Tide are Football Outsiders' clear-cut No. 1 unit. They're spearheaded by Heisman winner and wide receiver DeVonta Smith, who edged out his quarterback, Mac Jones, for the award. Smith put up 105 catches, 1,640 receiving yards, and 20 scores, while Jones ranked second in the country in both passing yards (4,036) and touchdowns (36).

Alabama would've cashed more overs in 2020 had it not been for its defense rounding into form. The Crimson Tide started the year with four straight overs while the defense allowed an average of 28.8 points per game. Since then, the Tide are 5-3 to the under, surrendering just 14.1 over that span.

Alabama's also dropped back-to-back contests against the spread following seven straight wins. Head coach Nick Saban's a great bounce-back bet, though, covering seven of the last eight after failing to in his previous outing.

Betting trends

• Ohio State is 1-5 ATS the last six games after a win by 20 or more
• Ohio State is 7-3 to the under the last 10 vs. winning teams
• Alabama is 7-1 ATS the last eight versus the Big Ten
• Alabama is 10-4 to the over the last 14 January games

The case for Ohio State

Alabama has allowed a grand total of 104 points in its two games against top-10 OF+ offenses - Florida and Ole Miss - this year. Ohio State is ranked No. 2.

Mismatches will be there, especially in the middle of the field, where Alabama's linebackers and slot corners have been challenged. So, while Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson are stalemated on the outside, tight end Jeremy Ruckert - who hauled in two touchdowns against Clemson - and five-star freshman receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba should feast.

Meanwhile, Ohio State hasn't lost by more than eight points since October 2018.

The case for Alabama

Alabama's No. 1 ranking in the country doesn't portray just how good the program's been this season.

The Tide have clearly separated themselves from the pack, which is evident by SP+'s 2020 grades.

Saban and Co. are simply in a class of their own. Alabama has few, if any, holes. Additionally, bettors backing the Big Ten in this spot have looked foolish, as the Crimson Tide have covered seven of the last eight against the conference.

When it's all said and done, Alabama will have saved one of its best performances for last against a defense that's yet to see this type of speed.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.