Orange Bowl betting preview: Can UNC match pace with Texas A&M?
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The Saturday nightcap could be a wild ride if all goes according to script.
Here's everything bettors need to know about the Capital One Orange Bowl when high-flying North Carolina meets a legitimate contender in Texas A&M.
North Carolina vs. Texas A&M (-7.5, 65.5), 8:00 p.m. ET
Few offenses were better than North Carolina's in 2020. In fact, OF+ ranked the Tar Heels No. 3, behind only Alabama and Ohio State.
A depth chart littered with future NFL talent can put up points in a hurry - sorta like UNC did in a 62-26 win over Miami in the regular-season finale.
However, the Tar Heels will be short-handed when they face the Aggies: Leading rusher Michael Carter and receiver Dyami Brown both opted out, and oh, running back Javonte Williams, who leads the team with 19 touchdowns? He recently announced he'd be sitting, too, ultimately subtracting three key pieces from the program's offense.
If UNC can't score, the defense is screwed, for lack of a better word. The unit ranks just No. 60 in the country in both points against (28.4) and DF+ and has only played one offense (Notre Dame) in the top 25 of OF+. That's bad news for the Tar Heels, considering Texas A&M ranks No. 12 and has averaged roughly 450 yards per game over the last five.
The Aggies have dominated the ACC lately, cashing 11 of the last 13 games against the spread. They've also been great in the favorite role, especially under head coach Jimbo Fisher, going 20-9-1 ATS the last 30.
Notable betting trends
- North Carolina is 0-4 ATS following an ATS win
- North Carolina is 4-0 to the under the last four versus the SEC
- Texas A&M is 5-2 ATS the last seven overall
- Texas A&M is 7-2 to the under the last nine as a favorite
- Texas A&M is 5-2 to the over the last seven bowl games
- Texas A&M is 9-4 to the over the last 13 non-conference games
Best bet - Texas A&M -7.5
I'd lay the chalk with the favorite.
North Carolina's already down three huge pieces on offense and that may not even be its biggest loss for the game - star linebacker and First Team All-American Chazz Surratt has also opted out.
When everything's going well, the Tar Heels look like one of the best teams in the country. When things go off the rails in the slightest, the squad completely unravels.
The market's essentially cooled on North Carolina's offense in this one, moving the total from 69 to 65.5 and the spread north of +7 to +7.5. And I agree.
The Tar Heels don't have the necessary firepower to trade punches with an SEC powerhouse. Fade the 'dog.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.