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Fiesta Bowl betting preview: Points at a premium for Oregon, Iowa State

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Two programs on the upswing meet in the Fiesta Bowl when Iowa State clashes with Oregon.

To get you ready for the Saturday night slate, let's jump right into all the hot betting info.

Oregon vs. Iowa State (-4, 57), 4:30 p.m. ET

The early money came flooding in on Iowa State, pushing the Cyclones from -3.5 to -4. When discussing the best non-playoff teams, head coach Matt Campbell's club deserves some attention.

Iowa State went 8-3 this season, finishing as the Big 12 runner-up. The program was only outgained on a per-play basis twice and finished as SP+'s No. 11 team in the country - two spots behind Notre Dame, which managed to slip into the CFP.

The Cyclones had covered three straight before the conference title. The team is on a roll as a favorite, winning five of the last six against the spread.

Oregon dropped three straight for bettors leading up to the Pac-12 Championship before beating USC as a three-point 'dog. The squad currently ranks No. 15 in SP+ and has been pretty balanced in 2020, ranking No. 17 and 30 in offensive and defensive efficiency, respectively.

The Ducks have been red-hot when it matters, going 5-0 ATS the last five versus teams with winning records.

Notable betting trends

  • Iowa State is 2-7 ATS the last nine non-conference games
  • Iowa State is 0-6 ATS the last six neutral-site games
  • Oregon is 5-2 ATS the last seven bowls
  • Oregon is 6-0 to the over the last six after a win
  • Oregon is 6-1 to the over the last six versus teams with winning records

Best bet - Under 57.5

I don't like this matchup for either offense.

Oregon's defense just locked down one of the most explosive offenses in the country in the conference title game. Outside of running back Breece Hall, Iowa State doesn't have a ton of playmakers who will scare the Ducks.

Meanwhile, the Cyclones' defense ranks No. 12 in the country in DF+, making this a brutal draw for Oregon, who has yet to play a team that's currently top 20 in that metric.

Points should be at a premium between these two.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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