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Outback Bowl betting preview: Ole Miss is a live 'dog

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There's action on all day Saturday, including an afternoon clash between Indiana and Ole Miss.

Here's everything bettors need to know about the Big Ten-SEC matchup.

Ole Miss vs. Indiana (-8.5, 66), 12:30 p.m. ET

There aren't many offensive units better than Ole Miss'. The Rebels clocked in at No. 9 nationally in OF+, thanks to scoring 48 points in three of their final four games. First-year head coach Lane Kiffin finished the year No. 3 in total yards and No. 5 in plays per game.

The market has moved the total from 69.5 to 66, perhaps due to Ole Miss' depth on the perimeter. The team's top two pass-catching options - Kenny Yeboah and Elijah Moore - recently opted out for the year. The duo combined for more than 1,700 receiving yards and 14 total touchdowns.

Kiffin has gotten his squad up for games like these, as the Rebels are 5-0 against the spread versus teams with winning records.

Indiana, meanwhile, is 6-1 overall and 7-0 ATS. The Hoosiers beat Wisconsin in the regular-season finale as 12-point 'dogs despite losing quarterback Michael Penix to an injury a week earlier. Indiana has now defeated Wisconsin, Penn State, and Michigan in the same season and also nearly knocked off Ohio State.

The Hoosiers lean more on their passing attack, averaging 258 through the air per game as opposed to 103.7 on the ground. The defense has performed exceptionally well, pacing the country in takeaways (17) and ranking top 20 in points allowed.

Notable betting trends

  • Ole Miss is 8-2-1 ATS the last 11 neutral-site games
  • Ole Miss is 4-1 to the over the last five as an underdog
  • Indiana is 14-3 ATS the last 17 overall
  • Indiana is 4-1 ATS the last five non-conference games
  • Indiana is 30-8 to the over the last 38 after scoring 20 or fewer points

Best bet - Ole Miss +8.5

Maybe it's just me, but I really like this Ole Miss squad. The Rebels are fearless as underdogs. This team was Alabama's biggest threat during the regular season (63-48) and went toe-to-toe with Florida in a shootout. The program has won five straight ATS versus teams with winning records, so morale shouldn't be a problem.

Playing without Moore and Yeboah hurts, but Ole Miss can still run the ball - the Rebels have logged at least 195 rushing yards in six of the last seven.

The Hoosiers haven't lost ATS yet - but they're probably due. Indiana's been outgained on a per-play basis in three of the last four and still can't get the ground game going. It's early, but there's expected to be 15 mph winds in Miami around kickoff.

Bet the 'dog in this spot.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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