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Gator Bowl betting preview: Kentucky has monster edge on the ground

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A pivotal New Year's Day slate of bowl games bleeds right into the weekend, with four more matchups.

We get started with the Gator Bowl, featuring North Carolina State and Kentucky. Here's everything bettors need to know for Saturday's opener.

NC State vs. Kentucky (-2.5, 50.5), 12:00 p.m. ET

Chalk it up as a solid season for the Wolfpack. They finished 7-3 overall and 6-4 against the spread, clocking out at No. 46 in SP+ rankings.

NC State is on schedule to be an underdog for the first time since early November. Head coach Dave Doeren has been deadly in this role, going 3-1 ATS the last four with a pair of outright wins. The Pack took down Pittsburgh as 14-point 'dogs in Week 2, then followed that up with a 17-point victory over seven-point favorite Virginia.

NC State started with five overs in its first six games before closing with three unders in its final four. However, the Wolfpack have cashed six straight overs when getting points.

Efficient rushing offenses excel in bowl season due to timing and chemistry. This is right up Kentucky's alley - the Wildcats run the ball on north of 62% of their snaps and face a defense that was in the bottom half of the nation in rush yards allowed per game.

Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops has been perfect in non-conference games lately, cashing seven straight. The Wildcats also prefer laying points, as they're 9-4 ATS the last 13 as favorites.

Notable betting trends

  • NC State is 4-13 ATS following an outright win
  • NC State is 1-7 ATS the last eight vs. the SEC
  • NC State is 7-0 to the over the last seven bowl games
  • Kentucky is 15-5-1 ATS the last 21 vs. teams with winning records
  • Kentucky is 20-6 to the over the last 26 non-conference games

Best bets - Kentucky -2.5 and team total over 26.5

Good luck stopping Kentucky on the ground. The Wildcats combined for close to 600 rushing yards the previous two times they were favored, and last season, they ran rampant on an ACC team (Virginia Tech) in the bowl to the tune of 37 points and 331 rushing yards.

The Wolfpack haven't been able to maneuver past the SEC, covering just once in the last eight tries. And considering NC State's on a 6-0 streak to the over as a 'dog, expect the scoreboard to be busy.

Look for Stoops to move to 8-0 ATS in non-conference play with a big win to cap off the year.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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