Sugar Bowl betting preview: Bet on the Buckeyes' offense

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Bowl season has been extremely difficult to cap. What else is new?

The entire board is murky. Players are opting out left and right, certain programs don't have even have coaches, and good luck guessing which teams are motivated and which aren't.

Now that we're through most of the exhibitions and into the games with more at stake, the handicaps become clearer. We've got a good one for Ohio State and Clemson, who meet in the Sugar Bowl to close out a New Year's Day four-pack.

Ohio State vs. Clemson (-7.5, 65.5), 8:00 p.m ET

Ohio State was thought to be the biggest threat to Alabama at one point this year. But remember, it's a lot of "what have you done for me lately?"

Right now, the nod goes to Clemson.

Since losing to Notre Dame sans Trevor Lawrence in early November, the Tigers are 3-0, outscoring opponents 131-37. They're coming off a dominant effort in Round 2 against the Fighting Irish, but you were nuts if you thought defensive coordinator Brent Venables would let an opponent slice him up for a second time in roughly six weeks with a trip to the Collge Football Playoff on the line.

Now, Clemson and the No. 1 defense in DF+ face the toughest test of the season in a semifinal tilt against the Buckeyes, whose offense ranks No. 2 in the country in OF+.

Ohio State survived a scare in the Big Ten title game against Northwestern to get here. The program won by 12 and failed to cover, though two of its top receivers - Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba - were both out.

The Buckeyes are dangerous in the underdog role, covering 20 of the last 28. They failed to win against the spread in last year's semifinal against Clemson despite outgaining the Tigers by 99 yards.

Notable betting trends

• Ohio State is 4-0 ATS the last four games in January
• Ohio State is 4-0 to the under the last four bowl games
• Ohio State is 5-2 to the under the last seven as an underdog
• Clemson is 6-0 ATS the last six as a neutral-site favorite
• Clemson is 5-0 to the under the last five bowl semifinals
• Clemson is 7-2 to the under the last nine as a bowl favorite

Best bet - Ohio State team total over 28.5

Everything lines up for Ohio State to score points in this game.

Only Alabama has been better offensively this year. Quarterback Justin Fields is elite, and he has the single deepest receiving corps in the country at close to full strength.

No team has been able to stop this unit. Since Fields took over in 2019, the Buckeyes' offense has been held under 430 total yards just once in 20 games. The only squad to allow fewer than 28 points against Ohio State was Clemson in this spot last year, but the Buckeyes were scheming players open all night to pile up 516 total yards of offense.

Ohio State's defense doesn't have the pieces to contain the Tigers for four quarters. Last year's unit was far better, and it still surrendered 29 points to Clemson. The nation's reigning championship runner-up has scored at least 34 points in every game this season, and the quick-strike ability is there.

Nobody's going to play keep-away in this one. I couldn't tell you who will cover, but I can't see how Ohio State stays quiet on the scoreboard.

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.