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CFB Week 13 best bets: A cheap buy on Oklahoma State

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We hit three of our four best bets last weekend, moving us to 55% for the 2020 season.

Here's what's on tap for Week 13.

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (-11, 54), 12:00 p.m. ET

Oklahoma State isn't necessarily built to blow teams out. The program's had some close calls as a double-digit favorite this season, including a two-point win over Kansas State (+14) and a nine-point triumph over Tulsa (+21).

Next up is Texas Tech, which has been a great bet in this series of late. The Red Raiders have won back-to-back meetings and four straight against the spread entering Saturday.

However, this is a cheap buy on the favorite. The advanced metric SP+ has these teams on complete opposite ends of the spectrum (Oklahoma State No. 23, Texas Tech No. 91), while the Cowboys have played one of the toughest schedules in the country.

Unless Oklahoma State has trouble getting up after losing to archrival Oklahoma, this should be a sweat-free winner.

Pick: Oklahoma State -11

Ball State @ Toledo (-9.5, 63.5), 12:00 p.m. ET

Another team to buy low in Week 13 is Ball State out of the MAC. The Cardinals have yet to cover a spread this year, but this line against Toledo is getting out of hand.

Betting Ball State as a favorite is usually not the way to go. The Cardinals lost outright to Miami (OH) as one-point chalk, were outgained by Eastern Michigan as eight-point favorites, and didn't come close to covering -14.5 in a six-point win over Northern Illinois.

However, Ball State has covered four straight as 'dogs. Toledo's a tough opponent, but close to 10 points here is asinine.

A straight-up win wouldn't be surprising in the slightest.

Pick: Ball State +9.5

Rutgers @ Purdue (-11, 62), 4:00 p.m. ET

Early money came flooding in on the over, which pushed the number up from 58 to 62. And why not? Rutgers has cashed three overs in four tries this season, while Purdue just combined for 65 points with Minnesota last week.

However, I can't envision this game as a barn burner. Both teams are outside the top 30 in plays per game and at the core, neither team really wants to play a track meet.

This is a pure numbers play.

Pick: Under 62

Mississippi State @ Ole Miss (-9.5, 69.5), 4:00 p.m. ET

Mike Leach vs. Lane Kiffin is an absolute treat. Both Mississippi State and Ole Miss are easily forgettable in a stacked SEC, but both teams are the epitome of volatile - and that's a green light to the over.

Ole Miss' offense ranks No. 10 in the country in OSP+; the Rebels have cashed six straight overs following a win.

Meanwhile, Mississippi State has cashed eight of the last 11 away from home.

Expect plenty of fireworks in the Egg Bowl.

Pick: Over 69.5

(Odds source: theScore Bet)

2020 betting record: 22-18

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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