CFB betting: Picking 1 long shot to win each conference

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Oregon, LSU, Ohio State, Oklahoma, and Clemson won their respective conferences in 2019. Let's consider ourselves lucky we didn't write this post last season.

Outside of LSU, it was all chalk in the Power 5. There's little parity in today's college football landscape, but that's not going to stop us from singling out some of the best 2020 value plays.

Here, we'll go through every conference - both Power 5 and Group of 5 - and pick one dark horse to come out on top.

AAC - Temple (+2500)

Will the AAC's cream of the crop take a dive next season? SMU was -1.3 wins worse than its actual record in 2019, and Memphis was one of the luckiest squads in the country, with a -2.2 difference between expected and actual wins.

If this spot is up for the taking, Temple makes the most sense. The Owls play the third-easiest schedule in the conference and return roughly 75% of their offense, which should play well in the high-scoring AAC.

ACC - Pittsburgh (+4000)

Experienced quarterback play and offensive potential? Pitt has both. Kenny Pickett is entering his third year as the team's starting quarterback, and his second season learning under offensive coordinator Mark Whipple. The Panthers also rank No. 24 in returning offensive production.

I can't take a stab at North Carolina at 10-1 or even Louisville at 20-1. The Panthers at 40-1 is the best bang for your buck in the ACC.

Big Ten - Minnesota (+1600)

Getting 16-1 might not make the Golden Gophers a true long shot, but after Minnesota, the Big Ten drops off quite heavily. I'd much rather cop-out than throw a dart on Indiana at 25-1 or Nebraska at 33-1.

Minnesota found its footing last season, going 11-2. With quarterback Tanner Morgan and an offense that ranks No. 14 in returning production, I wouldn't be so quick to sell the Gophers this year.

Big 12 - Texas Tech (+3300)

Here's the team with the least luck in 2019 by second-order wins, which account for postgame win expectancy. Texas Tech won just four regular-season games, but the Red Raiders were a dreadful 0-5 in one-score contests. They're the most logical Big 12 squad to make a 2020 leap.

Conference USA - Charlotte (+4000)

I had to reach here, but how can you not bet on head coach Will Healy? He turns the locker room into "Club Lit" after every win. That's worth something in the futures market.

MAC - Western Michigan (+600)

Another tough one, with eight MAC teams given odds of 10-1 or shorter.

There's no way you can bite on Eastern Michigan at 25-1, Bowling Green at 100-1, or Kent State at 250-1. Give me Ball State, which returns the second-most production in the MAC, and will benefit from the 86th-ranked schedule in the country.

Mountain West - Fresno State (+2500)

Fresno State sunk back to the middle of the Mountain West last season with a 4-8 record, its worst during Jeff Tedford's three-year stint as head coach. But a year after winning 2.4 games fewer than expected, the Bulldogs could surprise some folks this fall.

Pac-12 - Stanford (+3300)

Watching David Shaw, a four-time Pac-12 Coach of the Year, lead the Cardinal to a 4-8 record in 2019 just didn't feel right. Stanford had been among the models of consistency in college football, winning eight-plus games in eight straight seasons before last year's dud.

The Cardinal should be vastly improved in 2020, as they return 73% of last season's production and face one of the easiest schedules in the conference.

SEC - Ole Miss (+5000)

Ole Miss over 5.5 wins is my favorite SEC total.

The program checks all the boxes: It was unlucky last season (four actual wins vs. 5.1 expected wins), it brings back a ton of last year's output (No. 28 in the nation in returning production), and Ole Miss fields an offense ready to explode behind quarterback John Rhys Plumlee and head coach Lane Kiffin.

Sun Belt - Georgia Southern (+2500)

Georgia Southern has quietly won 17 games over the last two seasons under head coach Chad Lunsford, who could trot out one of his better teams in 2020. The Eagles bring back 80% of their offense and 58% of their defense from 2019, good for No. 44 in the country in overall returning production.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.