CFB: 5 teams to avoid for the 2020 season

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We kicked off the week by profiling five college football programs that will make you money this upcoming season. Today, we're highlighting a few squads that will lose you money.

Here are five teams to steer clear of in 2020.

Iowa

This one stings; there's always that one spot on the schedule where Iowa is a tasty home underdog against a team like Ohio State or Michigan. But between schedule, returning production, and luck in 2019, Iowa makes this season's no-bet list.

Iowa has one of the country's toughest 2020 slates, with a schedule including games against Ohio State and Penn State. Its opponents' combined win percentage from last season clocks in at roughly 60%, which is top 15 nationally.

Only three other Big Ten programs bring back fewer starters from 2019 than the Hawkeyes, who are No. 91 in the nation in returning offense and No. 96 in returning defense.

And then there's luck. Iowa was among the most fortunate programs in 2019, winning nine games despite performing like a 6.7-win team.

Head coach Kirk Ferentz is one of the most consistent head coaches in college football, but 2020 has regression written all over it.

Utah State

Utah State experienced some highs in the Mountain West over the last two years. Now, it will likely return to the middle of the pack.

The Aggies morphed into the nation's most potent mid-major offense in 2018, only to slowly deteriorate. Head coach Matt Wells fled after that historic campaign, and eventual first-round quarterback Jordan Love led the country in interceptions last season. The outlook heading forward is just as bleak.

Utah State will have the third-toughest schedule in the Mountain West this season and barely cracks the nation's top 100 in terms of returning production. After winning 1.5 more games than they deserved last season, the Aggies won't be cash cows in 2020.

Miami (Ohio)

Using luck as a factor isn't the be-all, end-all. Second-order wins are used to determine which teams deserved which results if all programs were equally lucky, but this admittedly doesn't work with each case study. Typically, though, luck evens out over time.

If there's one team I think is most likely to see its fortunes balance out in 2020, it's Miami (Ohio), which was far and away the luckiest program in the country last season.

Not many teams can win eight games with a minus-56 point differential. Miami somehow pulled it off. Head coach Chuck Martin strung together six wins over the final eight contests to record his best season with the program, but five of those wins were by seven points or fewer. The team will need to be just as good in one-score games this season to see eight wins again.

Oddly enough, returning production and strength of schedule favor the Redhawks. They bring back 86% of last year's offense and 61% of the defense, while their slate is outside the nation's 100 most difficult.

Still, I can't invest in a mid-major that had every bounce go its way in 2019.

Tulane

Tulane had its moments early last year. Head coach Willie Fritz led the Green Wave to a 5-1 record both straight up and against the spread before the team came up short in five of its last six regular-season tilts. If you forgot about Tulane after October, congratulations, you already have a head start on this exercise.

The Green Wave return only 31% of last year's offense and 58% of last year's defense. The schedule is rough, too: Tulane's opponents had a combined winning percentage of 55.6% last year.

Don't be surprised if Tulane starts 2020 the way it finished 2019.

Utah

I just can't get there with Utah. Head coach Kyle Whittingham has been a consistent moneymaker for bettors during his tenure with the Utes, but the deck is stacked against his charges this year.

No other team will be as inexperienced as Utah. The team is dead last in returning production at No. 130, bringing back just 48% of the offense and virtually none of the defense.

Though they have the easiest path of any program in the Pac-12, I won't be rushing to bet the Utes.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.