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CFB: 5 bet-on teams for the 2020 season

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We can't always predict runs like the one the SMU Mustangs had in 2019. We can only pound our heads on the table by mid-October, wishing we had bet on them religiously before they became overvalued.

It happens every season - a couple of under-the-radar programs defy projections, take the college football world by storm, and become bet-on teams. But the window of opportunity only lasts so long.

Our goal is to have a pulse on which of these teams can become treasure troves, similar to how SMU came storming out of the gates to cover its first five games of the year.

Here are five sneaky teams that will make you money in 2020.

UAB

UAB's been a cash cow for bettors since being reinstated to the FBS. Head coach Bill Clark's posted a combined 25-14-1 record against the spread (ATS) in his three years with the program. After an inexperienced Blazers team went 9-5 overall and 8-6 ATS in 2019, it might be time to fully invest.

UAB returns virtually every piece from last year's squad. With 82% of the offense and 80% of the defense back, it's no surprise the Blazers are in the top 10 in the country in returning production.

Secondly, the schedule will do the Blazers some favors. Their 2020 slate features only four opponents who went to a bowl game last season, while the total combined opponents' winning percentage from 2019 is a paltry 37.8%.

Troy

Head coach Chip Lindsey never really had a chance in his first go-round with Troy in 2019. It was his first year with new players, the Trojans didn't play defense, and they ran into an improved Sun Belt Conference that proved to be more than just Appalachian State and everyone else. However, the advanced metrics favored the Trojans.

Troy went 4-8 ATS and just 5-7 overall, but the team deserved better - the Trojans were 0-3 in one-score games, losing by a combined 13 points. Second-order wins projected Troy for a 6.5-win season; a couple of more bounces and Lindsay and Co. may have gone to a bowl game.

If the Trojans avoid misfortune, they'll make bettors money. They face the easiest schedule among Sun Belt programs this fall, which should equate to more wins.

Northwestern

Northwestern was an eyesore on the face of college football last season, and that still might be underselling just how awful the Wildcats were.

Only two other FBS programs were worse in yards per play than Northwestern, which finished with a 3-9 record and a -87 point differential. The Wildcats - who went a jarring 1-8 in conference play - didn't score more than 30 points against a single FBS opponent. Considering the success head coach Pat Fitzgerald has had in a smaller Big Ten market, 2019 felt like an anomaly. And that makes Northwestern a legitimate buy for bettors.

The kicker with returning production is that the players coming back have to be - how should I say this? - "good" for the metric to hold weight. Northwestern wasn't last year, but no other team in the country returns more production. That's a start.

I'd certainly hope a three-win team was just unlucky before I thought of buying. The Wildcats fit the bill - second-order wins called for a 4.7-win season, but Northwestern fell short time and time again in one-score games.

Lastly, the Wildcats get one of the Big Ten's easiest slates. Don't be surprised if Northwestern is catching too many points early in the year based off of last season's dud.

Buffalo

Buffalo morphed into a mid-major powerhouse down the stretch of the 2019 season. The Bulls closed out the year with six double-digit wins over the last seven contests, with their lone loss coming by three points. Head coach Lance Leipold has been profitable for bettors during each of the last two campaigns, but 2020 could be the year everything comes together.

A Bulls unit that averaged 37.5 points per game over its final seven games is No. 16 in the nation in returning offense. Buffalo ran over everyone to the tune of 247.6 rushing yards per contest.

Also, the Bulls' 2020 opponents' combined winning percentage from last year clocks in at 48.4%. With a win-now roster, potent offense, and an easy path, Buffalo should be on your radar (again).

Texas Tech

Texas Tech should really, really want last season back.

No other team in college football was unluckier than the Red Raiders, who went 4-8 but deserved 6.5 wins based on performance. Head coach Matt Wells struggled in late-game scenarios, going 0-5 in games decided by one score.

All hope's not lost, however. Texas Tech is in the top 50 in returning defensive production and should benefit from a plug-and-play style of offense. Similar to the approach of buying teams with weak slates, the Red Raiders own the Big 12's easiest schedule.

A year after going a modest 6-5-1 ATS, Wells has an opportunity to improve by leaps and bounds.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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