CFB win totals: 3 teams to sell high on in 2020
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We kicked off our college football win total coverage on Thursday, highlighting three teams to buy low on for the 2020 season. Today, we'll finish up with three teams you should sell high on. Win totals have not yet been released, but this is simply a handful of teams I'd beware of buying.
Cincinnati
2019 record: 11-3
Cincinnati showed last season that it's for real ... sort of. The Bearcats won 11 games for the second straight year, capped off by a trip to the AAC title game and a bowl win. But there was certainly some luck involved, including a 4-0 record in games decided by three points or fewer. In fact, PFF tagged Cincinnati as the second-luckiest team in the country last season by wins above average.
The Bearcats have a tough road ahead of them in 2020. The non-conference slate features games against Western Michigan and Nebraska, with road games in AAC play against SMU, Central Florida, and Temple.
Fading Cincinnati after its first 11-win season in 2018 was a bad idea. But after the Bearcats played like an expected 7.8-win team a year ago, this might be the optimal time to sell.
Hawaii
2019 record: 10-5
Hawaii's offense is so lethal that you can typically pencil the team in for seven wins and a bowl berth. The Rainbow Warriors were so potent last season that they collected 10 victories, along with a berth in the MWC title game and a bowl win over BYU. Similar to Cincinnati, they needed some bounces here and there - the Rainbow Warriors had a minus-1.5 second-order win total and were the sixth-luckiest team in the country. That's typically a red flag for buying a program in consecutive years.
I typically wouldn't care about Hawaii's returning production unless it was heavily skewed one way or the other, but the program's starting a new chapter under head coach Todd Graham. The offense shouldn't drop off a cliff considering Graham's ties and the way he's operated previous schemes, but it'll likely be enough of a change to consider this a transition season. And when your team faces three Pac-12 opponents in the first four weeks to shatter your confidence right out of the gate, there's no chance I can buy Hawaii in 2020.
Miami (OH)
2019 record: 8-6
Miami (Ohio) was so fluky in 2019 that it won the conference and was subsequently lined as a 14-point underdog in the bowl game ... against a mid-major that didn't win its own conference title!
The RedHawks didn't lose a single game decided by seven points or fewer, going a perfect 5-0. They also registered a minus-43 point differential against FBS opponents, which doesn't even make sense.
The schedule will likely keep them out of the bowl picture. The RedHawks get Pitt, Cincinnati, and Army out of conference, then draw Central Michigan and Buffalo away from home in MAC play.
Last year was a pleasant surprise for head coach Chuck Martin, who went over .500 in a single season for the first time in his Oxford stint. But I'd imagine regression is coming sooner than later for Miami, which was one of the luckiest programs in the nation last season.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.