Big 12 betting preview and predictions

Can anyone stop Oklahoma? That's the question in the Big 12.

The Sooners have won the Big 12 title four straight years, produced back-to-back Heisman Trophy winners, and are 5-7 favorites to capture the conference crown again in 2019.

Oklahoma has dominated the Big 12 the last four years, posting a conference record of 34-3 and appearing in the College Football Playoff three times during that span.

However, oddsmakers believe that if one team can dethrone the Sooners, it's Texas. The Longhorns went 10-4 last year and are getting 3-1 odds to win the Big 12 championship.

While Oklahoma and Texas are considered the only two Big 12 teams that will seriously challenge for a spot in the College Football Playoff, there are a couple of other schools with the talent to surprise, giving futures bettors the chance to cash in.

Let's dive into our best bet, value play, and the pick to avoid for the Big 12 this season.

("Over" prices in parentheses)

Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

Best Bet

TCU 16-1 to win Big 12

TCU is 16-1 to win the Big 12, and that may be the best futures value bet in any conference heading into the season. Injuries decimated the Horned Frogs last year, but they rallied to win their last three games and finish 7-6 while being down to their third-string quarterback.

Gary Patterson is one of the top head coaches in the country, and his teams traditionally bounce back strong after a disappointing season. TCU has finished in the top 10 six times over the last 11 years under Patterson, and three of those successful campaigns came when the Frogs were unranked, which is expected to be the case again this season when the AP top 25 rankings are released on Aug. 19.

The Frogs return 12 starters, but they're even more experienced than the numbers suggest because so many young players got on the field last season. Their schedule is tricky, with road games at Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma. However, with the Big 12's top defense and an experienced quarterback, TCU should be right in the mix to win the conference title.

Getting the Frogs at 16-1 in August is stealing.

Value Play

Texas Tech over 6.5 wins (+120)

Texas Tech is an interesting team.

All the offseason talk focused on former head coach Kliff Kingsbury bolting to the NFL. There's no debating that Kingsbury is an offensive wizard, but his Red Raiders teams underperformed. In six seasons at Texas Tech, Kingsbury finished with a losing record four times and went a miserable 19-35 in Big 12 play.

The Red Raiders brought in former Utah State head coach Matt Wells to replace Kingsbury, and he inherits 13 returning starters, including quarterback Alan Bowman. Wells was known for his tough defenses at Utah State, so expect a big improvement on that side of the ball. Texas Tech finished 108th in total defense last season while allowing 40-plus points six times.

The Red Raiders are flying under the radar, and they'll field a talented roster set to face a manageable early-season schedule featuring winnable games against Montana State, UTEP, and Arizona. Texas Tech should be one of the most improved teams in the Big 12, so grabbing the Red Raiders' 6.5 over at +120 is good value.

Bet to Avoid

Texas over 9 wins (-110)

Texas is a hot team heading into the 2019 season, and that also makes the Longhorns an overvalued team.

There's no doubt Texas is heading in the right direction under Tom Herman following a 10-4 campaign and a Sugar Bowl win over Georgia. However, a couple of factors should raise a red flag for bettors looking to cash in on Texas this year.

The Longhorns return just eight starters and 38 lettermen from last year's 10-win team. Granted, Herman has recruited well, so there's talent waiting in the wings, but key pieces must be replaced.

ESPN's Phil Steele describes Texas as one of the youngest teams in the country facing a schedule that ranks the 23rd toughest in the FBS, with games against LSU, Oklahoma (neutral), TCU (away), and Iowa State (away).

Texas will be good in 2019, but remember one thing about Herman: His teams tend to play better as underdogs. Three of Texas' four losses in 2018 came when the Longhorns were laying points, and they barely slipped past Tulsa, winning 28-21 as a 22-point favorite. If history is any indicator, Texas will drop at least one game it's expected to win this season.

Don't go nuts betting the over on Texas futures. S+P and ESPN's FPI project the Longhorns to finish between seven and eight wins, and nine victories looks like the ceiling. Pass.