The best, worst situational betting spots for teams in Week 13
One final regular-season week of college football means another handful of situational betting spots to consider. Before crunching the numbers and placing your wagers, be sure to keep these notes in your back pocket.
Potential hangovers/letdowns
Bowling Green (vs. Buffalo)
Line: Buffalo -14
On the surface, firing head coach Mike Jinks and promoting defensive coordinator Carl Pelini appeared to be the trick to salvaging the final month of Bowling Green's throwaway season. The Falcons have two wins in the last three weeks and held all three opponents to 35 points or fewer. Under Jinks, Bowling Green went 1-6 and let all six FBS opponents score 38 points or more.
Coaching changes can help a team, but we're not buying Bowling Green's surge. A poor Falcons defense was dealt a pretty sweet hand after Jinks was fired, facing teams ranked No. 109 (Kent State), No. 129 (Central Michigan), and No. 128 (Akron) by S&P+ offensive metrics.
We expect Bowling Green to come back to earth against a Buffalo offense ranked 41st by the same metric and 28th in national scoring at 34.5 points per game.
Syracuse (at Boston College)
Line: Boston College -7
This is a prime hangover spot for Syracuse, coming off a deflating 36-3 loss to No. 3 Notre Dame and playing the season finale on the road with a bowl bid already in hand.
Maryland (at Penn State)
Line: Penn State -13.5
Maryland was a two-point conversion away from upending No. 10 Ohio State as a 14-point underdog in a 52-51 loss last weekend. Now the Terrapins go on the road to Penn State seeking one more win to become bowl eligible.
Arizona State (at Arizona)
Line: Arizona State -2
Rivalry game or not, it might be difficult for Arizona State to get up for Saturday's Territorial Cup game against Arizona. The Sun Devils' hopes of playing for the Pac-12 title were washed away last weekend with a loss to Oregon, while Utah punched its ticket with a win over Colorado.
Arizona State head coach Herm Edwards didn't mince words about the impact of the loss, telling 98.7 FM Arizona Sports' "Doug and Wolf" that there were "a lot of wet eyes in that locker room."
Arizona State might also be a good fade for Saturday since Arizona is fighting for bowl eligibility.
Here's who else is fighting for six wins in Week 13:
Bowl eligibility
Coastal Carolina (at South Alabama)
Line: Coastal Carolina -2
Coastal Carolina has two things on its checklist for Saturday: Win, and start rooting against Power 5 programs with five wins. The Chanticleers are vying for a spot in the postseason with 65 teams already in, 18 looking at a realistic opportunity, and only 13 spots left.
SMU (at Tulsa)
Line: SMU -2.5
SMU has earned it up to this point, winning three of its five games as an underdog and weathering the storm of an early-season schedule that featured North Texas, TCU, Michigan, and Central Florida.
Tulane (vs. Navy)
Line: Tulane -7
Tulane is another five-win team out of the AAC that recorded three of its wins as an underdog. The Green Wave welcome a Navy team that is 0-5 straight up and 1-4 against the spread on the road in 2018.
Florida State (vs. Florida)
Line: Florida -5.5
Florida State's 36-year bowl streak hangs in the balance Saturday when it plays Florida. The Seminoles kept themselves in the postseason mix last weekend thanks to a comeback win over Boston College.
Wake Forest (at Duke)
Line: Duke -12.5
Wake Forest needs a road victory against Duke to reach six wins. The Demon Deacons will perhaps bank on a hangover from the Blue Devils, who got trounced at Clemson in Week 12.
Baylor and Texas Tech
Line: Texas Tech -6.5
Saturday's Big 12 clash between Baylor and Texas Tech is a win-and-in with both teams at 5-6.
Kansas State (at Iowa State)
Line: Iowa State -13.5
Kansas State is fighting for its ninth straight bowl appearance and just beat Texas Tech as a 6.5-point underdog at home. Defeating a tough Iowa State team will be difficult, but the Wildcats do get the Cyclones off a road loss at Texas.
TCU (vs. Oklahoma State)
Line: Oklahoma State -5
TCU kept its bowl aspirations alive with a road win again Baylor. The Horned Frogs play an Oklahoma State team that came back to beat West Virginia on Saturday.
Indiana and Purdue
Line: Purdue -4
Indiana and Purdue will fight for six wins and the Old Oaken Bucket on Saturday in Bloomington. Both teams are arguably suffering hangovers - the Hoosiers narrowly lost at Michigan while the Boilermakers blew a double-digit lead and lost in overtime to Wisconsin.
Minnesota (at Wisconsin)
Line: Wisconsin -10
Minnesota blew its shot at getting win No. 6 last week against a Northwestern team with seemingly nothing to play for.
Wyoming (at New Mexico)
Line: Wyoming -7
Wyoming can stamp its ticket to a bowl game for the third straight year with a road win over New Mexico.
Tennessee and Vanderbilt
Line: Vanderbilt -3.5
Tennessee-Vanderbilt will be the third win-and-in matchup of the slate, as both teams own five Ws on the year.
Virginia Tech (vs. Virginia)
Line: Virginia -4
Virginia Tech needs a victory against the Cavaliers just to stay in the mix. If the Hokies come through, they'll get a rescheduled date with Marshall after the original game was canceled due to inclement weather.
Colorado (at Cal)
Line: Cal -13
A loss would make it a heartbreaking season for Colorado, which hasn't won since starting the season 5-0. The final test isn't easy - the Buffaloes are getting double digits at Cal.
USC (vs. Notre Dame)
Line: Notre Dame -10.5
There's plenty at stake when Notre Dame travels to take on USC. A Fighting Irish victory would likely put them in the College Football Playoff. Meanwhile, the Trojans are aiming for six wins, and head coach Clay Helton's seat is hot.
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.