College football's biggest betting mismatches: Week 8
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Surveying the weekly NCAAF schedule can be a daunting task for even seasoned bettors. So each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying betting mismatches on the college football slate, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule.
Oklahoma State at Texas (+7.5, 65.5)
Oklahoma State's offensive gains vs. Texas' D-line struggles
The Oklahoma State Cowboys have surged into the top 10 in the national rankings following last week's blowout win over Baylor - and they'll look to continue their climb this week against host Texas. The Cowboys have bounced back nicely from a disappointing loss to TCU, scoring 100 points in wins over Texas Tech and Baylor while propelling themselves into top spot in the nation in passing yards per game. But it's their overall positive gains that give them a major edge of the Longhorns' suspect defense.
The Cowboys can move the chains with the best of them, averaging better than 411 yards through the air while sitting tied for first in points per game (48.8); the 747 yards it gained against the Bears last weekend established a school record. Oklahoma State has also limited yards lost, ranking inside the top-30 nationally in fewest tackles for loss allowed (4.83). Oklahoma State is also one of only 23 teams to have lost fewer than 100 yards on tackles for loss.
The Longhorns will hope to contain the Cowboys' sensational offense, but they aren't in great position to do so. The 264.8 passing yards they allow per game ranks outside the top 100 in Division I, and they rank in the bottom half of the nation in yards allowed per play (5.7). And they haven't had much luck wrapping up opposing teams in the backfield, sitting in a tie for 98th overall in tackles for loss per game (5.0). Look for the Cowboys to chew up positive yardage all game long.
Indiana at Michigan State (-7, 44.5)
Indiana's ball-security issues vs. Michigan State's positive turnover trend
It wasn't pretty, but Michigan State continued its winning ways over the weekend with a 30-27 triumph over Minnesota. Now, the Spartans return home to face an Indiana Hoosiers team that couldn't do what the Spartans did two weeks ago - beat the Michigan Wolverines. Michigan State has used a flurry of turnovers to build a nice winning streak, and will look to keep it going against a visiting Indiana roster that has had a tough time holding on to the football.
The Hoosiers have had a nightmare start to their conference schedule, drawing matchups with Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan; while Indiana actually made a game of it last weekend, the Wolverines prevailed 27-20 to drop Indiana to 0-3 in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers have forced just four turnovers all season while coughing up the football a whopping 13 times; that minus-9 turnover differential is tied for the fifth-worst mark in Division I.
The Spartans have been at the other end of the turnover spectrum, a major reason why Michigan State has kicked off Big Ten Conference play with three consecutive close victories. Michigan State has forced nine turnovers in those contests, including five in its upset victory over the Wolverines. After producing just two turnovers in their first three games, the Spartans have emerged as one of the top ball-hawking teams in the country - and that's bad news for the visiting Hoosiers.
Michigan at Penn State (-9.5, 42)
Michigan's moribund passing game vs. Penn State's premier pass defense
One of the marquee matchups of the week pits the scuffling Wolverines against the red-hot Nittany Lions, who have rolled to six straight wins but will face what is easily their stiffest test of the season. The Wolverines lost to rival Michigan State two weeks ago and looked ordinary in Indiana last week - and they'll need to figure out how to move the football through the air against a Penn State team that has stifled opponents' passing attacks all season long.
Most of the Wolverines' offensive firepower comes on the ground, where their 185 yards-per-game average sits inside the top 50. The passing game has been a major disappointment so far, producing just 191.4 yards per contest - just inside the top 100 in Division I - and only four total touchdowns. The Wolverines have also surrendered 16 sacks through their first six games despite passing on fewer than 42 percent of their total offensive plays.
Suffice to say that this might not be the week that Michigan gets right on offense. Penn State has risen to No. 2 in the rankings on the strength of a unit allowing just nine points per game, and has been elite in all facets of defense. The Nittany Lions limit foes to 167.8 passing yards per game - ninth-fewest in Division I - and have surrendered just three passing TDs through six games. They also have 17 sacks on the season, which bodes poorly for Michigan's mediocre offensive line.
Colorado at Washington State (-10.5, 56.5)
Colorado's third-down struggles vs. WSU's drive-extension skills
A 34-point loss to Cal resulted in a seven-spot drop down the rankings for Washington State, which aims to bounce back from that humiliating defeat at home against struggling Colorado. The Cougars bumbled and stumbled their way through last weekend's 37-3 drubbing, turning the ball over seven times to fall from eighth to 15th in the polls. But Washington State remains a terrific offensive team that should dominate on third downs against a Colorado roster that has struggled at preventing drive extensions.
The Buffaloes are coming off their first conference win of the season - a 36-33 slugfest with host Oregon State - but were fortunate to triumph after allowing the Beavers to gain 569 yards of offense while converting 10 of their 15 third-down situations. The latter stat has been a recurring problem for Colorado this season; it ranks 103rd nationally in third-down conversion rate, allowing teams to get to first down or the end zone a whopping 43.3 percent of the time.
The Cougars should be able to capitalize on Colorado's third-down problems despite going just 4-for-17 in last week's defeat. Despite that poor showing - and a positively dismal 2-for-14 showing against Oregon a week earlier - Washington State still sits 33rd in third-down conversion rate at 44.9 percent. Returning to prominence on third down will no doubt be a priority for the Cougars this week, and they have the right opponent in place for that to happen.