Conference tournament preview: Will anyone dethrone Duke, Florida, or Michigan?
Before the real March Madness begins, many teams are competing for automatic bids in their conference tournaments in order to earn a stress-free Selection Sunday. Over the next few days, the five major conference tournaments - the ACC, Big Ten, Big East, SEC, and Big 12 - will tip off and crown a conference champion. We broke down the five tournaments and our picks to cut down the nets.
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ACC Tournament odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Duke | -325 |
| Virginia | +700 |
| Louisville | +1200 |
| Miami | +1800 |
| North Carolina | +2500 |
| Clemson | +4000 |
| NC State | +5000 |
π Pick: Virginia +700
Duke isn't just the best team in the ACC; it's the best team in all of college basketball. Oddsmakers expect Duke to dominate the ACC Tournament en route to a title. That's hard to argue with, but it's also impossible to recommend taking Duke at that short a price. The Blue Devils' only ACC loss was to North Carolina, which no longer deserves consideration as a contender after a season-ending injury to Caleb Wilson.
Virginia is clearly the second-best team in the ACC and sits on the opposite side of the bracket from Duke. The Cavaliers have won 15 of their last 17 games and are a top-20 team on KenPom. If anyone's equipped to dethrone Duke, it's Virginia.
Big Ten Tournament odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Michigan | -105 |
| Illinois | +480 |
| Michigan State | +650 |
| Purdue | +650 |
| Nebraska | +1000 |
| Wisconsin | +3000 |
| UCLA | +4000 |
| Iowa | +6000 |
| Ohio State | +7500 |
| Indiana | +10000 |
π Pick: Michigan State
Michigan's only loss since Jan. 11 was to Duke. The 2025 Big Ten Tournament champs are the most talented and best-coached team in the conference, but that doesn't guarantee them a title. Michigan State's won six of its last eight games, with its two losses coming to Illinois and Michigan, both of which are on the other side of the bracket.
The Spartans are eighth on KenPom thanks to their sturdy defense, which can carry them to a tournament title. Guard play will be paramount, and Michigan State's Jeremy Fears Jr. is consistently the best floor general on the court.
Big East Tournament odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| UConn | -110 |
| St. John's | +185 |
| Villanova | +650 |
| Seton Hall | +1500 |
| Creighton | +4000 |
| Marquette | +5000 |
| Providence | +7500 |
| Butler | +10000 |
| Georgetown | +15000 |
| Xavier | +25000 |
π Pick: UConn (-110)
Only three Big East teams - St. John's, UConn, and Villanova - are projected to earn at-large bids, tied for the fewest since 1993. Villanova is 0-4 against St. John's and UConn this season with an average margin of defeat of 14.2 points. Unless another squad embarks on a miraculous Big East Tournament run - like Georgetown in 2021 - St. John's and UConn are on a collision course to meet in the Big East final.
St. John's defeated UConn in early February, but the Huskies exacted their revenge with a 32-point win later in the month that Red Storm coach Rick Pitino called one of the worst losses of his career. Although St. John's won the regular-season title, the Huskies are the more talented group. The Red Storm use rebounding and turnovers to generate offense, but they don't have much of an edge over UConn in either category. A Red Storm offense that ranks outside the top 50 on KenPom won't create quality shots against the Huskies' top-12 defense.
Big 12 Tournament odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Arizona | +115 |
| Houston | +200 |
| Iowa State | +750 |
| Kansas | +850 |
| Texas Tech | +1700 |
| BYU | +7500 |
| TCU | +7500 |
| Cincinnati | +8000 |
| West Virginia | +15000 |
π Pick: Arizona (+115)
The Big 12 has at least four national title contenders, but none have dominated like Arizona, which finished 16-2 against Big 12 opponents. Arizona's defense, which KenPom ranks third, suffocates opponents on the perimeter and prevents teams from scoring at the rim. Offensively, Arizona's potential kryptonite is shooting, but the Wildcats crash the offensive glass relentlessly and create extra shots.
Arizona's toughest challenger will be Houston in a potential title matchup. However, the Wildcats recently defeated the Cougars by seven without Koa Peat, Arizona's second-leading scorer.
SEC Tournament odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Florida | -175 |
| Arkansas | +600 |
| Alabama | +800 |
| Vanderbilt | +1200 |
| Tennessee | 1300 |
| Kentucky | +4000 |
| Texas A&M | +5000 |
| Georgia | +5000 |
| Missouri | +8000 |
| Texas | +8000 |
| Auburn | +15000 |
π Pick: Arkansas (+600)
Florida finished the regular season on an 11-game winning streak that included a resounding win over Arkansas. While the Gators have the necessary balance of guards and bigs to embark on another March run, a -115 price to win three games in three days isn't worth touching in this conference.
While the Big 12 might be the best conference, the SEC is the deepest, with 11 projected tournament teams. Still, we're not scrolling too far down the board to find a winner. Arkansas won 10 of its last 13 games to close the regular season and emerged as an offensive juggernaut behind Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas.
Arkansas doesn't have the frontcourt strength to compete with Florida - the Gators outrebounded the Razorbacks by 20 in their lone meeting - but the programs are on opposite sides of the bracket, meaning Arkansas won't see Florida until the championship.
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