With the calendar set to hit 2026, the college basketball season has nearly wrapped up its nonconference schedule, and league play is about to take center stage.
Distinguishing between what's real and what's fake can be tough when navigating each team's unique slates in November and December. With that in mind, here are four key questions that'll shape the rest of the campaign as conference play comes in full force.
Who will win SEC?
Good luck trying to predict how the big bad SEC will fare this season.
Just a year after standing out as one of college basketball's best conferences with national champions Florida and four of the top six teams in KenPom in the mix, the SEC landscape looks different this campaign. Vanderbilt is the only top-10 program in KenPom, but the conference has 11 squads ranked between Nos. 12 and 50.
Considering the Commodores were picked No. 11 in the league's preseason poll, the SEC is anyone's to win. The Gators sit 339th nationally in 3-point percentage at 28.2% but are starting to get transfer guard Xaivian Lee rolling, which could be a game-changer alongside their loaded frontcourt. Though Florida owns an 8-4 record, three of those losses came against top-10 teams - Duke, Arizona, and UConn - by a combined 11 points.
Alabama ranks No. 8 nationally in points per game thanks to its plethora of shooters, star point guard Labaron Philon, and a classic Nate Oats up-tempo style. However, the Crimson Tide have been getting killed on the glass due to a weak frontcourt. Tennessee has issues on the perimeter, with star Ja'Kobi Gillespie the only player on the roster to make more than 10 threes at over 31%. Meanwhile, Kentucky, often discussed as having the nation's priciest roster, has suffered tough losses against top-end competition, though potential lottery pick Jayden Quaintance returning to health will undoubtedly help the Wildcats' chances.
Maybe a dark-horse program could enter the contender conversation. Georgia has cruised through a relatively soft schedule, with its only loss coming in overtime versus a solid Clemson team. Arkansas' Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas, along with Auburn's Tahaad Pettiford and Keyshawn Hall, are among the best duos in the nation and can lead their schools to tough victories.
Keep an eye out for a team or two to emerge above the crowded pack near the SEC's upper echelon. Whoever can make it out of that gauntlet should be a squad to watch in March.
Can Michigan run the table?
Among the six unbeaten teams in the country, KenPom gives Michigan the highest probability of completing a perfect regular season at 5.1%. The Wolverines are favored to win every remaining matchup on their slate, with only two games projected to come within five points. After dominant wins of 18 and 41 points in its first two Big Ten games, running the table feels like a real possibility for this team.
But it's easy to forget that Michigan needed overtime to escape 9-4 Wake Forest and barely held on against 9-3 TCU before going on its run. While the Wolverines' Big Ten schedule starts light, an undefeated campaign would require road wins against two teams currently ranked in the AP Top 10: Michigan State and Purdue.
Remarkably, Michigan ranks No. 4 in offensive field-goal percentage and No. 2 in defensive field-goal percentage among all 365 programs this season. Although the defense feels somewhat sustainable with a massive frontline led by elite rim-protectors Morez Johnson and Aday Mara, the offense cooling down seems like it'll be the culprit for any future regression from the Wolverines.
Michigan boasts five players shooting 40% or better from deep, but only Nimari Burnett has ever topped 36% across an entire college season. Plus, guards Elliot Cadeau and LJ Cason are each shooting more than 10 percentage points higher than last year. If the Wolverines' hot shooting slows down, a well-balanced team that can defend the paint could ruin their chances at a perfect season.
Can Boozer surpass Flagg?
Duke's Cooper Flagg produced one of the best freshman campaigns in recent memory in 2024-25, averaging 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.4 blocks while shooting 48%. His all-around excellence propelled the 1-seeded Blue Devils and helped him capture virtually every individual award.
And yet there's a chance Flagg isn't even the best first-year Duke player in the last two seasons.
National Player of the Year frontrunner Cameron Boozer is averaging 23.3 points, 10.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.7 steals, and 0.9 blocks on 56.7% shooting for No. 6-ranked Duke. Although Boozer is more of a true forward, the identical assist and comparable 3-point numbers further tilt the pendulum in his favor.
To be fair, Boozer has needed to do a lot more for his squad than Flagg, who played alongside two lottery picks in Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach. In an ACC that lacks the strength of previous years, if Boozer continues to outpace Flagg statistically and can will Duke to a top seed in March Madness, his one season in Durham could be regarded even more highly than that of this year's No. 1 overall NBA draft pick.
Will we have a Cinderella this season?
Following one of the best March Madness tournaments for top seeds and favorites, the growing influence of NIL deals and player payments is poised to widen the gap even further between the haves and have-nots in college hoops. While we may never see a No. 12 seed make its way to the Final Four, a handful of non-power conference teams still have a real shot at making some noise in the NCAA Tournament.
Aside from Gonzaga, whose dominance is an outlier among mid-majors, Utah State, Saint Louis, and McNeese are three fascinating programs that could pull off upsets against schools with significantly larger budgets.
Utah State is fresh off a 42-point whooping of 9-3 Colorado State to open Mountain West play. Powered by do-it-all guard Mason Falslev and dynamic transfer MJ Collins, the Aggies combine an electric offense with a dominant defense, ranking among the leaders in steals per game.
Saint Louis is 11-1, with its lone loss coming by a single point in a heartbreaker against Stanford. Led by senior star Robbie Avila and rising sophomore Amari McCottry, the Billikens have blown the door off inferior competition. Barring any unexpected setbacks in A-10 play, they've all but secured a spot in the NCAA Tournament without needing an automatic bid.
Lastly, McNeese may no longer have head coach Will Wade, but it still has a hyper-aggressive defense that leads the country in turnover rate, paired with a speedy offensive unit loaded with athleticism. The Cowboys could absolutely shock a team just as they did against Clemson last season.
These schools likely won't threaten for a Final Four berth, but don't discount them when filling out your future March Madness bracket just because they're not from a power conference.
Matthew Winick is a college basketball analyst and consultant. You can find his work on X at @matthewwinick.
