CBB betting: How to bet the Big East Tournament

The old Big East gets all the lore, and rightly so, with memories of players and coaches who symbolized a bygone era. However, the new Big East was really good this year (except Georgetown), and of course, when it comes to the conference tournament, the "mecca" is always one of the big stars of the Broadway show.

Tournament odds

Each team has one of four categorical statuses, either: "Playing for 1-seed," "Securely in," "On the bubble," or "Need to win tournament" for an automatic berth into the NCAA tourney.

Early-round bet(s) to make

(10) DePaul vs. (7) Seton Hall
March 8, 5:30 p.m. ET

Fading DePaul isn't a new idea, but this is a matchup where we should get a reasonable point spread to work with.

Seton Hall's season-long ShotQuality metrics are discernibly better on both sides of the ball, and the Pirates took almost 10% more of their shots at the rim or from beyond the 3-point line. Seton Hall's 34th-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency should affect DePaul's deep shooting - the only notable thing that the Blue Demons do better than the Pirates on paper.

DePaul also got beat up on the glass in-conference this season, allowing almost eight more rebounds per contest than it took down. With a 12-game losing streak coming into the tournament, DePaul hasn't shown much fight recently, whereas Seton Hall's blowout win at Providence shows it's still engaged with a chance to make some noise in New York.

Pick: Seton Hall (-5 or better)

(5) Providence vs. (4) Connecticut
Quarterfinal, March 9, 2:30 p.m. ET

Speaking of Saturday's blowout in Providence, that should result in Ed Cooley having his team's full attention before Thursday's quarterfinal. Meanwhile, UConn couldn't have played better against Villanova on Saturday night. Both results might create a little value in the point spread.

Providence (+5.2 margin) is good enough on the glass to not be outrebounded 40-20 as it did in its last meeting with UConn, and outboarded again by Seton Hall. Now projected for an 8-seed versus 9-seed game in the NCAA Tournament, the Friars should be OK to get in, but an immediate exit from the Big East Tournament would make them vulnerable to be passed over by the committee.

A full effort from the Friars should result in a rebounding margin that looks more like the 50:50 ratio from their first meeting with UConn, which was a comfortable win. Getting more than two possessions' worth of points is the play.

Pick: Providence (+7 or better)

Late-round matchup to target

(6) Villanova vs. (3) Creighton
Quarterfinal, March 9, 9:30 p.m. ET

The market's rating for Villanova was on the move upward with Justin Moore's return. Without arguably their most important player, the Wildcats' resume fell to the point of sub-bubble, but after winning six of seven games going into last Saturday, Villanova's rating was boosted by four points. Then it lost convincingly, which should pull that back a little.

The Wildcats need to win this tournament to get into the Big Dance, so after what should be a tuneup Wednesday against the lowly Hoyas, Villanova gets a full day to prepare for a late-night start at the Garden.

Even without Moore for much of the season, the Wildcats' ShotQuality metrics were comparable to Creighton's, and Villanova went down to the wire with the Blue Jays in Omaha and then beat them in Philadelphia - both with Moore in the lineup.

Pick: Villanova (+4 or better)

Best bet to win the tournament

If we're playing the angle of the desperate team that has enough talent to compete with those that finished higher in the standings, then with Villanova against Creighton, we might as well play the Wildcats in the futures market as well. While UConn, Marquette, and Providence scrap it out at the top, the bottom half of the bracket is manageable, particularly with the injury to Xavier's Zach Freemantle limiting the advantage the Musketeers have inside.

The Wildcats' season-long metrics don't account for their potential, and while Jay Wright is no longer on the bench, maybe Villanova taps into its past success at MSG and finds its way to the NCAA Tournament.

Pick: Villanova (+700)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.