CBB title futures: When to fire and when to roll over

Another hurdle was cleared on the college basketball schedule Saturday morning when the NCAA Tournament Committee released its teaser for Selection Sunday. The committee showed its hand by listing its top four seeds in each region.

While you can back the team you like the most at the best number you can find, we're going to look at how to determine whether a futures bet might actually be valuable now.

This is the first of three articles that will discuss what betting a title future truly means from a value standpoint. If you're betting a team that's currently assigned a 4-seed or isn't on the mock bracket, there remains a possibility that the team could drastically improve its standing before March 13. We'll look at one such team next week. In two weeks, we'll look at what it means to bet a long shot.

However, if you're looking to bet one of the top seeds, it's probably too late, for obvious reasons. These teams are at, or near, their apex of their perceived value. Let's look at a pair of No. 1 seeds to demonstrate the difference between betting them now or starting a moneyline rollover before the first round tips off March 17.

In projecting matchups, we'll use the most recent (Feb. 22) bracket projection from ESPN's Joe Lunardi, and we'll assume the toughest possible route for two teams based on KenPom's ratings.

Gonzaga (+400)

Nothing will knock Gonzaga out of the top seed in the West Region, so we can expect this route to a potential national championship:

What stands out the most is that Gonzaga isn't shorter than a -200 favorite. If you're unable to understand why, just look back at last year's national championship game against Baylor; the Bulldogs were -200 against the second-ranked Bears.

If you were to bet on Gonzaga's moneyline in its first contest then take your initial bet and modest winnings and roll that over onto the moneyline in the Bulldogs' second-round game and so on, the eventual payout would be +385 if they win all six rounds for their first championship.

Any upsets elsewhere could make their route easier and decrease the moneyline rollover value. So while +400 seems like a prohibitive number, it's actually the best value for the Zags that you'll see.

Before the season, Gonzaga could be had at +550. That was a price you'd have wanted to stay away from knowing there was a whole season for things to potentially go wrong. Now that much of the season has been played, there's less of a chance disaster will strike, and you've lost minimal value by waiting.

Auburn (+900)

Many consider Auburn to be the most interesting bet to win the national championship. However, the Tigers' projected matchups paint an intriguing picture.

One of many things that jump out is that a rolling moneyline parlay (described in the above section) would equate to an almost 27-1 payout. That's huge value, especially in comparison to a +900 market price.

Firstly, Gonzaga waiting at the end as a +200 underdog really boosts implied moneyline odds. For as much as we may like the Tigers' talent, including potential NBA first overall pick, Jabari Smith, the reality is that Auburn is sixth in KenPom's ratings, which drives point spread and moneyline pricing.

Secondly, by the second weekend of the tournament, the Tigers may find themselves in a pick'em game with Duke (or Kansas or Baylor or Houston). To get appropriate value on Auburn anywhere near 10-1, you'd need those teams to suffer upsets to avoid seeing the Tigers in coin-flip games.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.