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Final Four odds: Making the case for each team to win the tournament

Jamie Squire / Getty Images Sport / Getty

And then there were four. It's only fitting that this crazy tournament - which boasts a historic number of first-round upsets and late-stage Cinderellas - would also feature the lowest seed in Final Four history and the biggest betting favorite we've ever seen.

Gonzaga is still the clear favorite to win it all, but the Bulldogs will be challenged stylistically in the Final Four. Here are the odds to win it all for the remaining four teams, with the case for and against betting each one:

TEAM ODDS
Gonzaga -275
Baylor +240
Houston +900
UCLA +2500

Gonzaga (-275)

Case for the Bulldogs

This writes itself, doesn't it? Gonzaga has 27 consecutive double-digit wins and hasn't lost a game this season. The team's adjusted efficiency margin (+38.82) is by far the highest in the KenPom era, which might still be the case even if the Bulldogs lost in the semifinal.

Gonzaga's offense is the best in the nation, and the Bulldogs' defense is top-five despite playing at a breakneck pace. Drew Timme is the top-ranked player in the country, per KenPom, but he might be the third-best player on the team behind future lottery pick Jalen Suggs and elite scorer Corey Kispert. Need I say more?

Case against the Bulldogs

This all comes down to price and risk. Four of the last five programs to enter the tournament with an undefeated record reached the Final Four, but none of them finished the job. Of the previous 17 teams since '02 with the highest adjusted efficiency margin at the end of the regular season, 14 did not win it all.

The only team that came close to beating Gonzaga this season was West Virginia, which grabbed 35% of its misses and scored 1.0 points per possession - one of just seven teams to do so against this squad. If one of the remaining clubs can dominate the rebounding battle against the Bulldogs, they'll have a chance.

Baylor (+240)

Case for the Bears

For the first few months of the season, Gonzaga vs. Baylor was much closer to a 1A vs. 1B situation than what it's become. That comparison largely came from the Bears' defense, which held 10 of their first 15 opponents under 0.95 points per possession.

A long layoff preceded a dip in defensive intensity, but that tenacity appears to be back in the tournament, completing a red-hot offense that ranks third in adjusted efficiency. Baylor shoots the three with the best of 'em and attacks the boards when they can't convert, which is a deadly combination when done right.

Case against the Bears

Will the defense hold up? While the Bears have been defending better in the tournament than in the weeks prior, they were still less-than-stellar inside against Arkansas and were fortunate to benefit from the Razorbacks' poor shooting day.

Houston is also a difficult matchup in the Final Four, given how well the Cougars rebound after every miss. If Baylor loses the overall possession battle - which tends to be a rarity - it'll put a lot of pressure on its defense to hold up.

Houston (+900)

Case for the Cougars

The case for Houston is an easy case to make: There are three elite teams left in the tournament, and one of them has a far superior price. Houston's adjusted efficiency margin (+30.16) is marginally smaller than Baylor's (+30.73) and is in the neighborhood of every recent national champion's, but the program's priced like an afterthought this weekend.

Don't let the odds dissuade you. The Cougars are among the most balanced teams in the country - ranking seventh in offense and eighth on defense - and rarely beat themselves. With such a slow pace and ferocity on the glass, it's tough to scrape together enough possessions to beat this squad.

Case against the Cougars

When will the missed shots catch up to this group? Houston makes fewer than 35% of its threes and 50% of its twos, but its elite offensive rebounding rate (39.8%) makes up for all of those bricks. However, what happens when another team - say, Baylor - can take away those opportunities on the glass?

There's also the question of competition. The Cougars have managed to advance to the Final Four without playing a top-30 program in any round, and they've played just one such team the entire season. We simply haven't seen Houston beat an opponent within the caliber of the remaining field.

UCLA (+2500)

Case for the Bruins

If you believe in UCLA's run to get to this point, you've got to take a serious look at betting the Bruins at this price. The team's climbed to 15th in adjusted efficiency margin (+22.03) after impressive wins over Alabama and Michigan - neither of which could best UCLA's suddenly stout defense.

We've seen this team reach an elite level before, beating Colorado in January and losing narrowly to USC and Ohio State, as well. These Bruins are resilient and built like an ideal giant killer with their crawling pace and efficient offense.

Case against the Bruins

There are two cases against this bet: One on the court and one off it. The on-court case is simple - UCLA is a No. 11 seed for a reason, having lost four games to end the regular season, and the squad's still incredibly prone to a bad shooting day while also not playing aggressively enough on defense to create its own opportunities.

Even if you like the Bruins, you're better off betting the moneyline (+800) in the Final Four and parlaying your winnings with the moneyline in the subsequent title game - assuming UCLA is at least a +190 underdog in that matchup. The Bruins will have to beat mighty Gonzaga to get to that point, anyway.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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