Finding value in mid-major conference tournaments

There's plenty to like about Power 5 tournaments, with the best teams in the country squaring off for conference supremacy. However, there's something special about mid-major tourneys, where many teams need to win out in order to keep their March Madness dreams alive, that brings out the best in college basketball.

With a number of these tournaments starting shortly, let's look at some with high stakes and where you should be looking to find value.

Missouri Valley (March 4-7)

Favorite: Loyola Chicago
Best Value: Missouri State

Ranked in the AP Top 25, Loyola Chicago has taken control of the Missouri Valley with a 19-2 conference record. The Ramblers' slow, methodical offense run through Cameron Krutwig complements their dominant defense, which ranks second in the country in KenPom's adjusted efficiency.

To beat them, a team will have to score efficiently, which the red-hot Gaige Prim and Missouri State are primed to do. There is minimal value in the Ramblers as clear front-runners, plus they likely have a spot in the NCAA Tournament locked up regardless, so it might be worth taking a small play on Missouri State to win Arch Madness.

Mountain West (March 10-13)

Favorite: San Diego State
Best Value: Utah State

Much like Loyola, San Diego State is in the AP Top 25, leading its conference, and probably safe for an at-large bid. That alone is going to put a target on its back, and three capable teams - Colorado State, Utah State, and Boise State - can give the Aztecs a real challenge.

The best value lies with Utah State, the only team to beat the Aztecs twice this season and one that features the menacing Neemias Queta down low. Leaning on their lockdown defense, the Aggies don't win pretty, but head coach Craig Smith's approach has led them to consecutive MWC titles. With their freshman pieces playing better, why not bet on a third?

Mid-American (March 11-13)

Favorite: Toledo
Best Value: Buffalo

Toledo's long-range shooting has the program at 14-4 in the competitive MAC, but the Rockets are by no means a lock. In a neutral setting with three games in as many days, a cold streak shooting the ball could knock them out prematurely.

On the other hand, Buffalo is surging. The Bulls lost to Toledo earlier this season but sport the nation's fifth-best 3-point defense and dominate on the offensive glass. Buffalo plays at a rapid pace and seems to be clicking at the right time, but there are no safe plays in a league this competitive.

Southern (March 5-8)

Favorite: UNC Greensboro
Best Value: UNC Greensboro

Without a clear front-runner in this conference, UNC Greensboro should be considered the favorite. The Spartans squeaked out the regular-season title and feature the probable SoCon Player of the Year in Isaiah Miller.

Wofford and Furman both present major challenges, but it's tough to bet against the Spartans and their senior leader, who's one of the best players in program history. The Spartans will go as far as Miller takes them, and he's not the type of player to count out in a high-stakes tournament.

Big West (March 8-13)

Favorite: UC Santa Barbara
Best Value: UC Irvine

Exercise caution if you want to take the value pick, UC Irvine. UC Santa Barbara is much more talented, and upstart squads like UC Riverside and Cal State Bakersfield are right there as well.

However, there's something about head coach Russell Turner and the Anteaters in March. They have the Gauchos' number too, winning seven of the last eight against their state rivals. Back UCSB if you trust talent, but go with UCI if you'd rather trust the system.

Summit (March 6-9)

Favorite: South Dakota State
Best Value: Oral Roberts

South Dakota State leads the Summit League for a fourth straight year, although the Jackrabbits were upset in the first round of last season's conference tournament. They're no lock this time either, as they've lost at least one game to each of the other top four seeds.

Those teams include Oral Roberts, led by the nation's leading scorer, Max Abmas. With games coming in such a short span, there is value in the fourth seed Golden Eagles to rally behind Abmas' scoring and the team's elite 39% clip from deep.