CBB weekend betting preview: Count on Arkansas staying hot
Our last betting preview for the month of February is here, which can only mean one thing - it's almost March Madness! Then again, with our 13-2 record against the spread, maybe we don't want this month to end after all.
With conference regular seasons coming to a close, tournament seeding is top of mind for many teams. This weekend, we look at teams who are set to extend - or end - their winning streak.
Missouri St (-6, 138) @ Evansville
Feb. 26, 7 p.m. ET
Evansville plays one of the most unique styles of basketball in the nation: they own the third-slowest pace and take the second-most threes in the country.
That game plan shouldn't work too well against Missouri State, a squad led by elite 2-point scorers Isiaih Mosley and Gaige Prim. Evansville's porous defense is last in the Missouri Valley in both 2-point and 3-point percentage, and the hyper-efficient Bears offense will be hard to stop. Between the holes in Evansville's defense and Missouri State's second-ranked 3-point coverage, the numbers lean toward the Bears.
This all goes without mentioning the clear momentum advantage. Missouri State, winners of six straight, are looking to cement its third-place standing for next week's conference tournament. On the other hand, Evansville have lost six in a row and nine of their last 11. All things considered, a clear advantage goes to the Tigers, and I would play it even if the line jumps a point or two.
Pick: Missouri State -6
Liberty (-2, 130) @ Bellarmine
Feb. 27, 12 p.m
It has been a magical first year in Division I for Bellarmine, winners of 10 straight, and sitting in a tie for first place in the Atlantic Sun. With a postseason ban as a new entrant to D-I, Saturday will be the Knights' last game of the season, and they'll have a chance to break the conference's first-place tie against Liberty.
Bellarmine is 10-0 against teams five through nine in the A-Sun, and 0-2 against the top four. The school has yet to play Liberty. The Knights are 12-0 as a favorite in KenPom, and 1-5 as an underdog.
Bellarmine's defense strives to turn the ball over and force 3-pointers, and is going against a Flames squad that not only leads the league in lowest turnover percentage, but shoots 38% from deep.
I'm certainly one for storylines, and Bellarmine winning the A-Sun regular season at home in its first year would be nothing short of incredible. However, the numbers and the scheduling both heavily favor Liberty, and numbers don't lie. Use your brain over your heart in this conference clash and side with the Flames.
Pick: Liberty -2
LSU @ Arkansas (-4, 162)
Feb. 27, 2 p.m
It's easy to look at this matchup between LSU and Arkansas, the SEC's two highest-scoring teams, and predict a ton of offense. However, there are two ends of the floor, and so we'll call the elite offensive battle a draw, and focus defensively.
It's the defensive end that has sparked the Razorbacks' current five-game winning streak. After allowing opponents to shoot over 50% from inside the arc in each of their first nine conference games, their hot spurt has seen all five teams shoot below that number. The same cannot be said for LSU's interior defense, as its lack of size and strength down low puts the Tigers 260th in the country in 2-point percentage allowed.
Arkansas looks like a team that has figured itself out. A group put together almost from scratch is finally gelling and playing at a top 25 level. Meanwhile, LSU has been unable to stay consistent, mixing a great showing like their early season defeat of Arkansas with poor ones like Tuesday's loss at Georgia. With the Razorbacks riding high after a quality win against Alabama, they should prevail behind their surprisingly loud home crowd.
Pick: Arkansas -4