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CBB weekend betting preview: Back Saint Louis in big revenge spot

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With COVID-19 postponements and wild weather, this weekend will feature fewer marquee matchups than usual. However, there are multiple games just below the top tier that will consist of teams you may recognize when filling out March Madness brackets next month.

The stakes are high for many of these squads, as winning their respective conferences may be the only way into the NCAA Tournament.

We're backing some elite mid-majors this weekend as we look to improve on our shiny 10-1 record.

Vermont (-2, 133) @ UMBC
Feb. 18, 7 p.m. ET

It's been a quiet campaign for Vermont, the America East regular-season champion four years running. After starting their campaign a month late and without any nonconference tuneups, the Catamounts slumped to a 2-3 record. Since then, they've won seven straight games by an average of almost 20 points but haven't faced a challenge as stiff as the one that rival UMBC poses.

The Retrievers are a scrappy bunch, especially on the defensive end. But their offense is quite limited, and their lack of size is concerning. On the other hand, Vermont's depth is tremendous, playing up to 12 players while posting efficient shooting numbers. Even though UMBC's defense aims to keep opponents out of the paint and force them to shoot threes, Vermont has enough of a presence inside and outside to cause problems.

After weeks of running through inferior competition, it might take some time for the Catamounts to flip the switch, but once they do, they're dangerous. With the line so small, back the team with more talent against its bitter conference rival.

Pick: Vermont -2

Saint Louis (-3, 137) @ Dayton
Feb. 19, 7 p.m.

After a terrific start to the season, Saint Louis missed over a month of action due to a brutal COVID-19 shutdown. With almost no practice in weeks, its first two games back were disappointing losses to Dayton and La Salle. Now back in rhythm, the Billikens are coming off a thrashing of the same La Salle team and are ready for more revenge.

Saint Louis was ice cold from deep in its first matchup against Dayton, while the Flyers almost doubled their season average with 12 threes. Typically, Dayton likes to punish teams with its efficient scoring near the rim, but the Billikens lead the Atlantic 10 in 2-point percentage defense. With that in mind, Dayton will struggle to repeat its offensive success from last time out.

With the two early-season slipups, Saint Louis is sweating its at-large bid chances. But with three straight games against the A-10's best on deck, the Billikens have the chance to make things right. Saint Louis is refocused and locked in, so bet against this team at your own peril. Dayton, loser of three of its last four, shouldn't be too big an obstacle.

Pick: Saint Louis -3

Western Kentucky @ North Texas (-2, 130)
Feb. 20, 5 p.m.

Remember Western Kentucky - the team that beat Alabama and took West Virginia to the wire? The Hilltoppers haven't had any marquee wins since then but have been consistent, sitting at 8-2 in Conference USA. Co-leader North Texas is this week's matchup.

The Mean Green, last year's C-USA champions, are a slow-paced, efficient squad. However, they struggle with turnovers and rarely get to the free-throw line. That could spell doom against the Hilltoppers, who get to the charity stripe at an elite rate and aim to take more free throws than their opponents. Western Kentucky has won all 11 games in which it's won the free-throw battle, while its four defeats came when losing that battle.

Playing on the road is a slight concern for Western Kentucky, as its goal will be to speed up the Mean Green and make them feel uncomfortable. But even if North Texas controls the pace, it won't stroll to a victory. The Hilltoppers are deep and experienced, and they know the importance of a game that could help solidify first place in the conference. As underdogs, there's good value on betting Western Kentucky to muck things up.

Pick: Western Kentucky +2

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