CBB weekly betting preview: Back Florida State in crucial ACC clash
We spent so much time analyzing red-hot college basketball teams last week, and that flame trickled down onto our picks. We're riding high with a perfect 4-0 record into a new slate of games.
This time around, the focus lies on playmakers in their home gyms. They say there's no place like home, and that statement remains especially true for elite offensive teams in important conference matchups.
Virginia (-1, 131) @ Florida State
Feb. 15, 7 p.m. ET
Virginia has been one of the best teams in the country all season, highlighted by an impressive 11-1 mark in ACC play. The program's only slip-up came against Virginia Tech, which exposed their lack of perimeter size and playmaking off of the dribble. The Cavaliers shot only 9-24 (37.5%) from inside the arc and took just four free throws while also allowing the Hokies to shoot 50% from deep.
A repeat performance is looming as Virginia travels to Tallahassee to face Florida State. The Seminoles' length and depth can make things difficult for their opponents, culminating in the ACC's best two-point defense. Additionally, FSU trails only Virginia in the conference in three-point shooting percentage.
This is all before mentioning the title implications. Despite playing four fewer games due to a COVID shutdown, the Seminoles sit only one game behind the Cavaliers in the loss column. A win Monday followed by running the table in a below-average ACC would hand FSU the regular-season crown. While picking against a Top 10 school is always difficult, the matchup, location, and importance all lean towards the Seminoles.
Pick: Florida State +1
Arizona State @ USC (-13, 147)
Feb. 17, 8 p.m.
At first glance, this is a massive spread for a conference game in which the underdog was ranked in the AP Top 25 earlier this season. However, all signs point to a USC blowout. Stylistically, the Trojans should dominate on the glass, measuring in as the second tallest squad in the nation and ranking first in the Pac-12 in offensive rebounding. On the flip side, Arizona State allows the second most second chances in the conference.
Beyond the obvious size discrepancy, the Sun Devils have been struggling to trot out a full rotation. Star freshmen Josh Christopher and Marcus Bagley are currently on the shelf, along with reserve big men Taeshon Cherry and Pavlo Dziuba. ASU only has three healthy scholarship players over 6-2 and has resorted to playing walk-ons at the forward position.
Simply put, potential top NBA draft pick Evan Mobley and USC's massive front line should have a field day inside against the Sun Devils. When backing the Trojans, the worry always lies in whether they can knock down shots. In this contest, where they should win the rebounding battle handily, their best offense might be their own misses. On personnel and size alone, give me USC on its home floor.
Pick: USC - 13
Utah State @ Boise State (-1, 137)
Feb. 17, 9 p.m.
For those who haven't watched much Mountain West basketball this season, here's a summary: Utah State and Boise State are both fantastic, and each sits squarely on the March Madness bubble. That alone should make the two-game series in Boise appointment television.
Both teams are massive but have dominated in different ways. The Aggies have only allowed conference opponents to score 59.4 points per game, while the Broncos' 78.5 points lead the conference in scoring - all ranking first in the Mountain West. With no clear advantages on either side of the ball, this game should come down to intangibles.
Boise State has the home-court advantage, where they are 9-0 this season. They also possess a major experience edge, which should be huge in a matchup as important as this. The Broncos have three seniors and no freshmen in their rotation, while the Aggies depend on multiple rookies at the point guard spot. This game will by no means be a blowout, but in a close game down the stretch, give me the home team with more experience to hit a big shot and escape with a victory.
Pick: Boise State -1