CBB betting preview: Trust Virginia's defense in marquee matchup
Figuring out when and how cold streaks will break in college basketball is a true guessing game. Last time, I backed three teams coming off losing streaks in strong spots where the value hadn't caught up. It resulted in a strong 3-1 performance, highlighted by a massive 30-point victory for a Rutgers team favored by only three.
This week, we deviate from the plan slightly, backing teams playing some of their best basketball right now, specifically on offense.
UC Santa Barbara (-6, 136) @ Hawaii
Feb. 12, 12 a.m. ET
UC Santa Barbara has been on fire, winning eight straight by an average margin of 19 points. With that being said, those victories have come against some of the Big West's lesser competition, and the Gauchos lost both their games against perennial conference favorite UC Irvine.
This weekend, UCSB heads to Hawaii to face its toughest test in over a month. While the Stan Sheriff Center being in a different time zone is a challenge for opponents, the Gauchos match up well with the Rainbow Warriors. UCSB is an uber-efficient offense, ranking top-50 nationally in 2-point, 3-point, and turnover percentage. Their experienced backcourt of JaQuori McLaughlin and Devearl Ramsey are battle-tested, and former Top 100 recruit Miles Norris gives this team a much higher ceiling.
Both teams also rank near the bottom in the country in pace, meaning that every possession is significant. In that case, give me the more efficient, mistake-free team coming off eight straight victories. While a feisty Hawaii squad could keep things close in their home building, look for UC Santa Barbara to pull away and cover the 6-point spread.
Pick: UC Santa Barbara -6
Indiana @ Ohio State (-6, 140)
Feb. 13, 12 p.m.
Keeping with the trend of scorching teams, Ohio State stands as one of the hottest squads in the country, and Saturday's game against Indiana presents another strong opportunity to back the Buckeyes.
For one, Ohio State has been untouchable at home this season, save for an unlucky finish against Purdue. Against the Hoosiers, it won't only hold a home-court advantage, but a shotmaking one as well. Sporting a deep rotation filled with playmakers, the Buckeyes aren't overly dependant on any one player to score. On the flip side, Indiana is heavily reliant on star Trayce Jackson-Davis, which allows Ohio State's sizable wings and bigs to key in on him. Both teams love to get to the free-throw line, but while Indiana shoots them at a poor 66%, Ohio State is near the top of college basketball at 77%. Overall, the percentage numbers lean the Buckeyes' way in almost every category.
In order to beat a team as hot and efficient as Ohio State at home, you'd need to simply outshoot them. While the Hoosiers have played well this season, they just don't have the offensive firepower to complete the upset. Give me Ohio State in a game they should control from the jump.
Pick: Ohio State -6
Duke (-2, 150) @ NC State
Feb. 13, 4 p.m.
Well, there goes that trend of backing teams on a hot streak. Duke has been as disappointing as any squad in the nation, losing three straight and owning a 7-8 record. While the expectations are still sky-high, sometimes it's worth removing the school name and digging into the results. Save for a brutal loss to shorthanded Miami, the Blue Devils have played somewhat better recently, especially on offense.
They head to Raleigh to take on NC State, a team that has gone 1-3 since losing star Devon Daniels to a torn ACL. On top of that, the Wolfpack's one win in that stretch came against Boston College, who were coming off a COVID pause and missing three rotation players. Both teams have poor defenses, each allowing their opponents to shoot over 46% from the floor. With that being said, NC State's offense hasn't been overly effective, failing to top 80 points in 12 of its last 13 games.
Duke has started to figure out its young roster, with sophomores Wendell Moore and Matthew Hurt leading the way. Turnovers are still an issue, but it's clear the Blue Devils are not devoid of talent. The Wolfpack haven't proven they can stay afloat offensively without their best player. Sure, a young Duke team with turnover problems and a sub .500 record heading on the road is a scary proposition, but sometimes talent wins out, and that's what we're betting on here.
Pick: Duke -2
North Carolina @ Virginia (-8, 130)
Feb. 13, 6 p.m.
Typically when you see Virginia on the college basketball slate, it's a good idea to lean under on the total. And when you see a matchup as awful for the opponent as Saturday's tilt is for North Carolina, you jump at the opportunity. Virginia unders start with the fact the Cavaliers rank dead last in the country in adjusted tempo, per KenPom.
A major reason for this comes from Virginia's rebounding rate, allowing teams to grab the 15th least offensive boards in the nation. Gaining second chances happens to be what the Tar Heels do best on offense. In fact, it might be the only thing they do well. While ranking second in offensive rebounding percentage, they are below average in 2-point, 3-point, and free-throw shooting. Basically, if North Carolina can't grab second chances, it probably won't be making many shots against Virginia's defense.
If anything, the worry when picking the under is Virginia's offense. The Cavaliers have been red-hot from all over the floor this season, possessing the nation's fifth-best effective field-goal percentage. Despite those lofty numbers, they've only scored over 80 points four times this season, once again due to their slow pace. As long as they hold the Tar Heels under 60, a hot shooting night from Virginia shouldn't spoil a low-scoring game.
Pick: Under 130