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CBB weekly betting preview: Back Rutgers in important rematch

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Now that the NFL season is coming to a close, more eyes are locking onto what has been a wild and abnormal college basketball season. With cancellations and rescheduling occurring on a daily basis, nothing is guaranteed.

Still, with tons of high-quality matchups on this week's slate, here are some of my best bets.

Ole Miss at Arkansas (-4, 140)
Jan. 27, 8:30 p.m. ET

It's been a bumpy ride for Arkansas. After kicking off the year 8-0 in non-conference play, the team lost four of six SEC games before winning the last two. While a majority of that slide happened without starting forward Justin Smith, his absence can't be the only reason for the Razorbacks' struggles. A cupcake schedule early on, highlighted by an 80-point victory, and returning only 15.3% of their minutes from last season led to continuity issues once the competition stiffened.

If the Razorbacks' most recent three halves of basketball, in which they are plus-35, are any indication, they may have turned the corner. They rank 18th in tempo ahead of a date with Ole Miss, a team that likes to slow the game down and typically plays only eight players. While Arkansas' offense has been hit-and-miss, it's consistently been able to control the speed of the game, and doing so against the Rebels should make them uncomfortable.

Ole Miss does possess a major size advantage down low and typically dominates the offensive glass. That said, a limited number of bodies will be sent to rebound the ball offensively with Arkansas' dangerous transition game ready to attack at all times. The Rebels similarly struggled in this regard against speedy opponents like Alabama and LSU. Given the Razorbacks' affinity for scoring points, the four-point spread doesn't bother me, especially at home.

Pick: Arkansas -4

Louisville at Clemson (-1, 129)
Jan. 27, 9 p.m.

While Arkansas' roller-coaster season has it rising and falling, Clemson's campaign is in a deep downward spiral. The Tigers were ranked as high as 12th in the AP Poll, but three straight blowout losses sunk them. After an 11-day COVID-19 pause, Clemson was dominated by a red-hot Virginia squad, then lost on the road to Georgia Tech and Florida State, two of the best offenses in the ACC. A team that hadn't allowed more than 70 points in any of its first 10 games allowed at least 80 in all three losses.

Facing a less threatening Louisville offense at home could be exactly what the Tigers need to get back on track. Clemson's horrible starts haven't allowed the team to play through star big man Aamir Simms, forcing its guards to speed up and take on more usage. If the Tigers can get Simms involved, Clyde Trapp and Nick Honor are more than capable of lighting it up from deep.

Louisville has been solid this season but got crushed by 37 at Wisconsin, the only time it faced a defense as menacing as Clemson's on the road. If the Tigers can regain their confidence and steady the ship, they are well-positioned in what is essentially a pick-'em.

Pick: Clemson -1

Michigan State at Rutgers (-3, 143)
Jan. 28, 7 p.m.

Is Rutgers finally back? After a 7-1 start followed by an ugly five-game losing streak, the Scarlet Knights earned an impressive road win at Indiana. A lineup change that threw Paul Mulcahy and Caleb McConnell into the starting five seemed to jolt the offense, and Ron Harper Jr. showed signs of his early-season All-American form. Now they'll look to maintain some positive momentum against a Michigan State team that defeated Rutgers by 23 just three weeks ago.

The shooting splits summarize that contest: While the Spartans shot a combined 39-of-68 (57%) from the field and free-throw line, the Scarlet Knights went 24-of-76 (32%). That stark contrast predictably led to the large spread.

At home, with a multitude of high-level scorers, the bet is that Rutgers can fix the shooting woes that haunted it last time out against the Spartans. Harper and Co. still have lots to prove as Selection Sunday approaches, and a home win this week would go a long way in boosting their resume. If the line starts to rise beyond three points, I would start to get hesitant, but I like it where it stands right now.

Pick: Rutgers -3

No. 7 Iowa at No. 19 Illinois (-1, 165)
Jan. 29, 9 p.m.

Iowa has the best offense in terms of adjusted efficiency, per KenPom, while Illinois sits eighth. The Hawkeyes are 10-5 on overs this season. Illinois is 9-6. Despite the massive total, face-value indications scream points in this Midwestern matchup.

The Fighting Illini are led by Ayo Dosunmu, an elite slashing forward who uses his size and athleticism to get into the paint at will. While Iowa's backcourt is stacked with shooters, it simply doesn't possess the defensive talent to keep up with the All-American candidate. His sidekick, the gargantuan Kofi Cockburn, will be battling with Player of the Year front-runner Luka Garza down low. While Garza has enough strength to hang with Cockburn, his importance on the offensive end will make him conscious of foul trouble, likely giving the Illinois big man some easy interior looks.

With this game featuring 10 combined players shooting over 36% from beyond the arc and two teams that have been statistically dominant offensively all season, there's no need to overthink this. Both of Iowa's games against top-75 scoring offenses flew over the total, and this one should be no different. Even if bettors push the line up a couple points, I still like the over here.

Pick: Over 165

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