CBB weekly betting preview: Back Ohio State in revenge spot
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We had our first losing stretch a week ago with a 1-2 mark against the spread, foiled by narrow wins from Texas and Tennessee. Still, we're 15-9 ATS on the season and love the value in a handful of games on the schedule.
Here are a few of my favorite bets this week.
No. 19 Duke (-1.5, 142) at No. 20 Virginia Tech, Jan. 12 @ 7 p.m. ET
When will Duke stop getting the benefit of the doubt from oddsmakers? The Blue Devils are now 1-6 ATS, the second-worst mark by any team from a major conference, and they look no better after a long layoff than they did before it.
The same issues persist - Duke has shot 37% or worse from deep in five of its seven games, with the lone exceptions coming against two of the worst 3-point defenses in the country. The bigger issues might be on the other end, where the Blue Devils have allowed their last four opponents to score at least 1.04 points per possession.
Virginia Tech has covered all three games this year against KenPom top-30 teams and plays at a deliberate enough pace to handle Duke's aggressive - but inconsistent - pressure on defense. Take the points on the hotter side.
Pick: Virginia Tech +1.5
No. 6 Kansas (-3.5, 145) at Oklahoma State, Jan. 12 @ 8 p.m.
Oklahoma State has played to its level of competition this season, and that's exactly what underdog bettors can hope for against a blue blood like Kansas.
The Cowboys are 8-3 straight up this year, with all three losses coming by three points or less. Two of those came against teams currently ranked in the top 15 (Texas and West Virginia), while Oklahoma State also bested No. 15 Texas Tech in overtime on Jan. 2 despite a poor shooting night from star Cade Cunningham.
Expect an inspired performance from the freshman against Kansas, which has struggled to put away good teams this season and is coming off a near-defeat against Oklahoma on Saturday. Tuesday's contest should be even tougher.
Pick: Oklahoma State +3.5
Northwestern at No. 21 Ohio State (-7.5, 143.5), Jan. 13 @ 7 p.m.
The last time these two teams met, Ohio State controlled the lead for much of the game before stumbling down the stretch and missing a game-winning shot at the rim. Northwestern will be lucky to keep it that close this time around.
Turnovers were the story in that one, as the Buckeyes coughed it up 10 times and forced a season-low five turnovers. In the three games since, Ohio State has generated nearly 10 turnovers per game, while the Wildcats have turned it over almost 12 times per contest amid a three-game losing streak.
The Buckeyes are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 home games and have covered six of their last eight contests against a team that beat them in their previous meeting. Ohio State is the better team and won't be bested twice here.
Pick: Ohio State -7.5
No. 15 Texas Tech at No. 4 Texas (-3.5, 135.5), Jan. 13 @ 9 p.m.
Anyone who's followed along this year knows these are two of my favorite teams in the nation and were among my best title values entering the season. Yet one of them has clearly surpassed the other and is worth the short price in this one.
Both squads have top-five defenses per adjusted efficiency and rarely allow open looks. The difference is on offense: Texas Tech has scored fewer than 0.9 points per possession in three different games this year and has struggled to score at all three levels. Conversely, Texas' offense hasn't fallen below that mark once despite facing one of the toughest schedules in the country.
The best chance at an upset is if the Red Raiders can force their way to the line, which has been both their best offense and the best way to attack the Longhorns defense. Still, I'm skeptical it'll be enough to disrupt a Texas team excelling against top competition and is undervalued in this spot.
Pick: Texas -3.5
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.