CBB weekly betting preview: Trust elite defenses of Texas, Tennessee
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We got off to a blazing 14-7 record against the spread with our college basketball picks in 2020. Can we keep it going in 2021?
Here are a few of my favorite bets this week.
Iowa State at No. 4 Texas (-12.5, 140), Jan. 5 @ 8 p.m. ET
It appears Texas is finally getting its due after Saturday's 25-point win over Kansas, which vaulted the Longhorns into the AP Poll's top five. Advanced metrics have put Texas as a top-five team for a while, and I've touted the Longhorns as my favorite value since before the season started.
This team's strength is in defense, which ranks sixth in effective FG% allowed (40.9%), and has held five of its nine opponents to their lowest offensive efficiency this season. It's being done by stifling easy opportunities. Texas' long and experienced rotation has allowed the second-fewest percentage of assisted field goals (34.9%) and ranks near the best at preventing 3-point attempts.
Overall, it's a brutal matchup for Iowa State, which already struggles to generate easy looks and is among the nation's worst at getting to the line, and that's one vulnerability of this Texas defense. Lay the points with confidence.
Pick: Texas -12.5
Arkansas at No. 9 Tennessee (-7.5, 139.5), Jan. 6 @ 7 p.m.
Tennessee has been undervalued by the market this season, as evidenced by a 6-2 ATS record. So don't let one loss to a dangerous Alabama team scare you away from value here.
Before Saturday's defeat, the Volunteers had won all seven of their games by at least nine points, including five straight by at least 20 points. Six of Tennessee's opponents had their worst offensive performance against the Vols. Tennessee owns the nation's top defense per adjusted efficiency and is particularly stout inside.
Arkansas hasn't found its touch from outside and shot just 26.8% overall in Saturday's blowout loss to Missouri - the Razorbacks' only opponent ranked in KenPom's top 70 so far. They'll be hard-pressed to rise to Tennessee's level Wednesday.
Pick: Tennessee -7.5
Boston College at No. 21 Duke (-12.5, 150.5), Jan. 6 @ 8:30 p.m.
It's been almost three weeks since we've seen Duke, which had three games canceled or postponed since a 10-point win over Notre Dame on Dec. 16. That was also the only game the Blue Devils have covered in five tries as they battle inexperience and underwhelming shooting.
Duke shot 50% or better against Notre Dame and Bellarmine, which own two of the country's worst 3-point defenses. Against all other teams, the Blue Devils are 19-for-72 (26.4%) and posted below 0.91 points per possession in both of their losses this year.
Boston College has gotten off to a rotten start, but it's faced one of the country's toughest schedules and managed to stay within single digits against the two ranked teams it faced this year (Villanova and Minnesota). It also has the shooters to test Duke's perimeter defense, and that's the best way to flirt with an upset bid.
Pick: Boston College +12.5
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.