CBB weekend betting preview: Take the points in North Carolina-Duke rivalry
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The biggest game on the college basketball calendar is this weekend, but it's ... not quite what we'd hoped heading into the year. Nonetheless, the Duke-North Carolina rivalry headlines a busy Saturday of college hoops that should threaten the status of a few top-10 teams.
Here's a betting breakdown of this weekend's top matchups.
No. 7 Duke at North Carolina
Yes, anything can happen when these two squads meet, and there's enough reason to talk yourself into an improbable upset. UNC guard Cole Anthony is back in the lineup, and while the Tar Heels are 0-2 since his return, they nearly managed a road upset of No. 8 Florida State on Monday.
Offense was a major concern in that loss - they went 0-for-17 during one stretch in the second half - and Anthony's iso-heavy style has been a poor fit with a team that had finally discovered its inside-out identity. Still, Duke's ninth-ranked defense doesn't force many half-court turnovers, and it tends to funnel everything inside, which could force UNC to embrace what was working pre-Anthony.
Much of Duke's offense comes from winning the rebounding battle, which is the one area where North Carolina excels. The Tar Heels also rarely force turnovers, meaning this game could have fewer possessions than many expect. That suggests value on the under, which has hit in all six games since the 2017 season.
The Blue Devils failed to cover in their last three games as double-digit road favorites, which they project to be in this game, and they've dropped four straight ATS against North Carolina. It's worth taking the points in this rivalry - 12 of the last 13 games have been decided by 10 points or fewer - and UNC matches up well enough to justify it. But don't trick yourself into taking the 'dogs outright. The talent gap is simply too massive.
No. 12 Seton Hall at No. 10 Villanova
The weekend's only matchup between top-15 teams is also a crucial game for determining the regular-season conference champion - and it could swing the trajectory of one of these slumping squads.
Villanova raced out to a 17-3 start to the year, but back-to-back losses against Creighton and Butler knocked the Wildcats two games back of the Big East lead behind Seton Hall, which has lost just one of its last 12 games. That doesn't tell the whole story, though, as the Pirates have gone 1-3-1 ATS in their last five.
Seton Hall's defense, which helped the team rip off a 7-0 ATS run spanning December and January, has produced six of its eight worst performances in its last eight games. That's a concern against Villanova's 13th-ranked offense, which protects the ball and lives at the 3-point line. It's a volatile approach that makes this Wildcat team relatively boom or bust.
The Pirates are among the best at deterring shots from the perimeter, which could force Villanova to improvise. Creighton and Butler followed a similar strategy against the 'Cats to great success. Seton Hall is probably the better team but will be getting points here, so it's worth betting on the Pirates' defense to rediscover itself in this spot.
No. 2 Gonzaga at Saint Mary's
The story here for most people is whether Gonzaga, which has held onto a top-two spot in the polls for the last eight weeks, can survive a test against unranked Saint Mary's. And there are plenty of signs pointing to an upset.
The Gaels have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six games behind the nation's 10th-most efficient offense, which follows a stellar giant-killing recipe: They rarely turn it over, they're deadly from 3-point range, and they play at a snail's pace. Gonzaga's offense is the best in the country, but its defense is so-so and struggles to create turnovers. Smell a mismatch?
Here's where that defensive malaise comes in handy for bettors: the total. The Bulldogs have gone over in seven straight games amid an insane 17-2 over stretch. Read that number again. No matter how high oddsmakers set the number, Gonzaga's unstoppable offense and "just OK" defense have created a perfect storm for over bettors.
Saint Mary's sluggish pace could complicate that over streak, but its defense ranks 99th in efficiency and should be no match for the Bulldogs' attack. If this game goes over, it's likely that Gonzaga won, too, because the Gaels' only shot at an upset is to muck it up and hit just enough threes to prevail.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.