What to make of the Raptors after 55 games

Just before the NBA's 2025-26 season tipped off, I previewed one of the league's most unpredictable teams, asking whether the Toronto Raptors were directionless or on the rise.

The fifth-place Raptors enter the All-Star break at 32-23, already eclipsing their win total from last season. It's clear the league's seventh-youngest team (by weighted minutes) is ascending. But there are still big-picture questions to consider for a team that's gone 4-13 against the league's 10 best clubs. Let's dive into what's gone right, what's gone wrong, and what Toronto still needs to figure out.

Barnes is a franchise star

Regardless of the Raptors' ultimate postseason performance, the biggest takeaway from Toronto's season is that Barnes is an undeniable franchise star. The 24-year-old can be the centerpiece of a future contender even though his shooting limitations prevent him from being the traditional three-level, No. 1 scoring option we usually envision in that role.

Barnes has become a dominant all-around force, with the arrival of fellow All-Star Brandon Ingram allowing him to fill a predominantly off-ball role he's best suited for. Barnes still bullies his way to points inside, shows off an improved mid-range touch, slings breathtaking passes, and leads the fast break as a playmaking forward, but it all comes more naturally than it did when he was miscast as a pure point-forward.

The biggest jump has come on the other end of the court, where Barnes' nightly impact has caught up to his defensive potential. The 6-foot-8 forward has guarded big men and point guards, all while clogging passing lanes, disrupting ball-handlers, and protecting the paint. Leading the league in total stocks (steals plus blocks), Barnes has been everything everywhere all at once for the Raptors' seventh-ranked defense. If Victor Wembanyama falls short of the 65-game minimum for award eligibility, Barnes deserves serious Defensive Player of the Year consideration.

"Scottie is Defensive Player of the Year. Scottie is an All-Star. Scottie is going to be Finals MVP one day. Scottie's going to be MVP of this league one day. I'm calling it now. You can write down the date when I said it," head coach Darko Rajakovic told reporters earlier this week. Rajakovic's effusive praise of Barnes and outsized expectations for the two-time All-Star have long been a source of comedy for Raptors fans and media alike, but Barnes' two-way play this season has made his coach's predictions more believable.

The best part for Toronto is that Barnes is only in the first year of a five-year contract that contains no options and is worth roughly 25% of the annual cap (rather than 30%). That already looked like a team-building boon coming into the season. Now it looks like a massive advantage.

Ingram's comeback season

Toronto's midseason trade for Ingram amid last year's tanking campaign was defensible but controversial. The move served as the prototype deal for rebuilding teams striking in "pre-agency," buying low on a tarnished star (and pending free agent) to set up their return to relevance a year later. However, Ingram would need to prove he could stay healthy and play his game in a winning environment.

Check and check thus far. After averaging 56.5 appearances per 82 games over his first nine years, the 28-year-old has already appeared in 53 of 55 contests this season. Ingram has emerged as the leading scorer (21.8 points per game) on a team playing at a 47-win pace, with the mid-range maestro helping address the Raptors' formerly glaring need for shot creation and tough shotmaking, particularly in crunch time. He's also playing the most inspired defense of his career.

Although Ingram's production and efficiency as a Raptor look quite similar to what they've been for most of his career, there have been subtle refinements. He's doing more with a little less of the ball - holding it and dribbling it slightly less than he used to - while being a more willing catch-and-shoot threat. During his last full season in New Orleans (2023-24), 52% of Ingram's field-goal attempts were of the pull-up variety, and 16% of his 3-point attempts were catch-and-shoots. This season, his pull-up frequency has decreased slightly to 49% of his total attempts, while his catch-and-shoot 3-point frequency has increased to 22%. Additionally, the percentage of Ingram's shots taken after zero dribbles has increased from 23% to 32%.

All of this has led to a 20% increase in Ingram's per-touch scoring efficiency.

Ingram has found a way to both be himself and fit in. "I want every player on our roster to feel that he's being himself, that he's being used to the best of his abilities," Rajakovic said. "But at the same time, I expect every single player to improve and get better. Not necessarily just percentages and shots and production, but fitting into the system, playing to our standard, playing with ball movement."

It's not often a player goes six years between his first and second All-Star selections, but it's a fitting reward for Ingram's comeback season.

Frontcourt questions

In my season preview, I called starting center Jakob Poeltl Toronto's most indispensable player. As the Raptors' only true center and 7-footer, there are things a healthy Poeltl can do consistently that no one else on the roster is equipped to.

The fact that the Raptors are having the season they're currently enjoying, even with a back injury limiting Poeltl to 22 games of mostly disappointing play, is a testament to the other two bigs in their rotation. Floor-spacer Sandro Mamukelashvili has been one of the league's biggest free-agent bargains, averaging 11.4 points and 5.1 rebounds off the bench while hitting 38.3% of his threes. More importantly, rookie power forward Collin Murray-Boyles has been a revelation.

Selected ninth overall in last year's draft, Murray-Boyles entered the Association with a defensive reputation that preceded him. But the level to which that defensive potential has immediately translated at the pro level has still been stunning. Opposing stars, coaches, and scouts are unanimous in their praise for Murray-Boyles and their projections of him as a future defensive star. The undersized rookie has also contributed on the offensive end despite clear limitations, with his rebounding, screening, playmaking, and smarts standing out.

Since Jan. 3, Murray-Boyles has ranked fourth on the team in minutes per game and has started all 15 contests he's suited up for. While seeking frontcourt depth ahead of last week's trade deadline, general manager Bobby Webster wanted to do so without disrupting Murray-Boyles' playing time and development.

"The silver lining of the (Poeltl) injury has been Collin in so many different ways," Webster told theScore. "Obviously, he's not 7-feet, but it's been a great surprise to see him (play like this) this quickly. Even tonight, I was talking to someone, it's like, he just sort of fits."

The Raptors addressed those aforementioned depth concerns with the addition of Trayce Jackson-Davis. The former Warriors big man is almost a discount version of Murray-Boyles, with a team option for only $2.4 million next season. Jackson-Davis is capable of slotting in as a good team's fourth or fifth big, and those team-friendly terms could help the Raptors in their quest to retain fellow reserve Mamukelashvili, who's sure to decline his $2.8-million player option for next season and opt for free agency.

Still, whether the goal is to solidify the frontcourt in the short term or to use his contract as part of a trade for a more starry upgrade, the Raptors need Poeltl healthy for everything to fall into place.

Trade chips or core pieces?

Much like Poeltl's contract, which will pay the veteran big man $27.3 million (roughly 14.2% of the cap) in 2029-30, the issue with Quickley's deal is more about the length (three more years) than the salary ($32.5 million). Those terms make both players tough to trade without attaching draft capital to their contracts, an inadvisable move for a still-building Raptors club.

And like Poeltl, Quickley still provides immense value to the Raptors' roster when he's at his best, as his ball-handling, shooting, and off-the-dribble creation are irreplaceable given the team's current construction.

Meanwhile, hometown star RJ Barrett is his own conundrum. The 25-year-old has found a nice fit in Toronto, where his slashing, cutting, and occasional shooting streaks help keep the team's offense flowing. The Raptors are a better team with Barrett in the lineup, but his defense still lags (particularly guarding off the ball), his shooting remains inconsistent, and his fit on winning teams is far from universal. On one hand, extending Barrett at a reasonable number makes sense. On the other hand, letting someone else pay Barrett what he believes he's worth when his contract expires in 2027 might make more sense, which is why he remains a fixture in trade rumors.

All of these factors put the Raptors in a tough spot at the deadline and might do so again in the offseason. Toronto controls all of its own first-round draft picks and has the right-sized contracts, from a salary perspective, to construct a trade package for an All-Star-caliber player. But the length of those contracts diminishes their appeal, and Toronto doesn't have any surplus first-rounders to take the kind of second-tier swings Washington and Utah did on Anthony Davis and Jaren Jackson (when the Wizards and Jazz combined to trade only one of their own first-rounders).

Barring a significant change in Quickley's and Poeltl's performances, the Raptors may need to wait it out until their contracts are short enough to attract rival suitors, while maximizing each player's unique value to Toronto in the meantime.

Raps need more from sophomores, third-year players

Jamal Shead's emergence as a consistent reserve shouldn't surprise anyone. If his shooting ever comes around, he has starter-level upside. However, the Raptors needed one of Gradey Dick, Ja'Kobe Walter, or Ochai Agbaji to pop. Agbaji struggled through a dreadful season and saw his expiring contract used to help the team duck the luxury tax. Toronto is still waiting on the Dick or Walter glow-up.

The former was drafted 13th overall in 2023. He was supposed to be a great shooter with good size and the ability to help on the glass. But other than one encouraging stretch early in his sophomore season, Dick has been a disappointing shooter who's gotten pushed around in his three years as a pro. Walter has flashed glimpses of being a solid 3-and-D rotation guard with some off-the-dribble juice, but at some point, he needs to do it for longer stretches.

One of these players even coming close to their ceiling this season could've elevated Toronto from emerging playoff team to a much more threatening postseason squad.

Self-awareness is key

The Raptors are a solid but unspectacular team as presently constructed, which is fine for this stage of their competitive window. Toronto might be slightly ahead of schedule, but it's not a team on the precipice of contention.

That's why Webster's deadline prudence was necessary. Sure, there's a glaring need for shooting that wasn't addressed, but the best course of action is letting this mostly positive year run its course rather than overpaying to elevate a first-round team to the second round.

The path forward and the Raptors' progression may not be linear, either, as I'd wager only Barnes and Murray-Boyles are viewed as concrete building blocks.

"There are going to be hard evaluations here," Webster said. "This is the hardest part of the season. This is when the lights are brightest. If we're fortunate enough to be in the play-in or playoff games, you'll get more evaluation. I think some of those tougher decisions will come in the summer."

Raptors fans might want to just enjoy the ride until then.

Joseph Casciaro is theScore's lead NBA reporter.