Butler's injury changes everything for the Warriors
Just as the Golden State Warriors were finding their groove and playing their best basketball of the season, the veteran team lost Jimmy Butler to a torn right ACL.
It's a devastating blow for Butler, who was quietly playing exceptional two-way ball for the surging Warriors. Averaging 20 points per game on nearly 65% true shooting, along with 5.6 rebounds, 4.9 assists, and 1.4 steals, Butler was enjoying one of the best and most efficient seasons of his decorated career. Already 36 years old, who knows what an eventual return from a significant knee injury will look like for the six-time All-Star?
The team-wide effects of Butler's injury will be even more consequential. His ability to get downhill, draw fouls, and guard opposing stars has been crucial for the Warriors. It also allowed them to survive treacherous minutes without Steph Curry. Butler not only leads Golden State in total minutes, but he also owns the highest on/off differential among its 12 most-used players.
Such a stat can sometimes be misleading, but in this case, it accurately captures Butler's value, as the Warriors become a fairly one-dimensional team without him.
| Butler | Team rank | League |
|---|---|---|
| On/off net | 1st | 21st* |
| VORP | 1st | 13th |
| Win Shares | 1st | 3rd |
*21st among 278 players who've logged at least 500 minutes
Curry remains the Warriors' most important and indispensable player, but Butler's two-way work is the reason Golden State finds itself comfortably in the Western Conference's top eight and knocking on the door of a top-six seed, which would guarantee a playoff berth.
The Warriors are riding their longest winning streak of the season (four games) and have won 12 of their last 16 after a 13-15 start. Though the team has admittedly looked mediocre for a good chunk of the campaign, Butler's presence raised its ceiling and gave Curry's squad genuine hope for a long playoff run. That dream now appears dead, raising questions about how Golden State should proceed leading up to the Feb. 5 trade deadline and beyond.
Given that the Warriors own all but one of their future first-round draft picks (a top-20 protected 2030 pick), they looked like a team capable of one last seismic deal to push Curry, Butler, Draymond Green, and Co. over the top again. Even a lesser move for a borderline star like Michael Porter Jr. might've been enough considering the brilliance of Curry and Butler. Would the front office even entertain such an acquisition today?
On one hand, the Warriors owe it to Curry to field the best team possible for the remainder of his career. But with Butler sidelined, the chance Golden State makes a move that would result in legitimate championship contention is slim. Although the Warriors could attach picks to Butler's contract - which will see him earn $56.8 million next year - in an effort to acquire a star on a longer or worse deal (like Anthony Davis), I wouldn't bet on it. Even with Curry's career winding down, it doesn't make sense to mortgage the future or jeopardize 2027 cap space to go from play-in team to first- or second-round exit.
The Warriors' short-term goal of pseudo-contention appears over. The contracts of Curry, Butler, and Green expire after next season. The roster could remain in limbo until then, at which point Golden State can reload around Curry or completely reset.
One fascinating ripple effect of Butler's injury could be its impact on Jonathan Kuminga's future. Given how far gone the relationship between Kuminga and the organization appears to be, this may change nothing, and the Warriors will still ship the young forward to the highest bidder at some point between now and the offseason. But if ever there was a path back into head coach Steve Kerr's rotation and potentially into the club's future plans, this is it.
Kuminga could provide a much-needed jolt of energy and replace some of Butler's work inside the arc, which no other Warrior is capable of. What a story it would be if the disgruntled player Butler took under his wing helped save the Butler-less Warriors' season.
That seems like wishful thinking. For everyone who believes it's time for the Warriors to find out exactly what Kuminga is, you can probably find someone in Golden State's front office convinced they already know who he is and who he isn't. A demoralizing injury elsewhere won't change that.
It's changed everything else for the Warriors, though. And it likely shut the door on contention once and for all.
Joseph Casciaro is theScore's lead NBA reporter.