The NBA's new tiers of contention
The NBA's offseason dust has begun to settle, so let's dig into my five tiers of championship contention, featuring more than half the league in this golden age of parity.
Tier 1A: The undisputed champs
Oklahoma City Thunder
Fresh off one of the most dominant seasons in NBA history, the young Thunder will bring their entire championship rotation back in 2025-26, with additional depth provided by Nikola Topic and perhaps even 2025 draftee Thomas Sorber. Oklahoma City will enter next campaign as the overwhelming favorites, and deservedly so.
Tier 1B: Legit contenders
Houston Rockets
The Rockets won 52 games last season behind an elite defense but were held back by a mediocre offense that relied too heavily on offensive rebounding and transition opportunities. That proved unsustainable in the postseason, with Houston entering the offseason in desperate need to address its half-court attack. The Rockets did that by trading for Kevin Durant, a playoff-proof half-court offense unto himself. The addition of Dorian Finney-Smith and the continued growth of Amen Thompson and Tari Eason should help cover the loss of Dillon Brooks on the other end.
Denver Nuggets
Employing the greatest player in the world gives Denver a head start in the race to a championship. That much was on display when Nikola Jokic dragged a wounded and overmatched version of the Nuggets to Game 7 against the eventual champion Thunder. Since then, Denver's front office has been busy. The club flipped Michael Porter Jr. for a better overall player who makes half as much money in Cam Johnson before addressing depth and shooting concerns with the additions of Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr. As long as Jonas Valanciunas stays put, the veteran big man gives the Nuggets their best backup center of the Jokic era.
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs' latest postseason disappointment is fresh on everyone's mind, and they'll miss reserve scorer Ty Jerome (who signed with Memphis), but don't overthink this. Cleveland is coming off a 64-win season, added two-way minutes-winners like Lonzo Ball and Larry Nance Jr., and appears to be bringing back the core four of Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, and Jarrett Allen. Few teams can afford to rival that top-end talent, and head coach Kenny Atkinson has found the right formula for this group.
New York Knicks
New York may one day look back on the spring of 2025 and say the Knicks blew their best chance at a Finals trip, but this team is still well equipped to emerge victorious from a weak Eastern Conference. Jalen Brunson has proven to be a playoff performer in ways guards of his size rarely are, Karl-Anthony Towns is an All-Star sidekick (albeit a frustrating one come spring), and OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges are among the best role players in basketball. New head coach Mike Brown should be able to diversify the offense in ways Tom Thibodeau never did. Also, don't overlook the low-cost additions of Jordan Clarkson and Guerschon Yabusele to a bench that sorely lacked depth.
Tier 2: On the fringes
Minnesota Timberwolves
Losing Nickeil Alexander-Walker is a blow to a club that already saw its win total decrease by seven games last campaign. Still, we've learned not to doubt Anthony Edwards' Timberwolves after back-to-back conference finals appearances. Edwards has grown tremendously as a shooter and offensive processor, while head coach Chris Finch always finds the right two-way approach. Julius Randle also seemed to finally find his role down the stretch. A lot is riding on how ready sophomores Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon Jr. are, but the early glimpses are encouraging. While the Wolves may not be surefire contenders, they're not far off, either.
Los Angeles Clippers
It's easy to dump on Bradley Beal, whose impact and fit in Phoenix never matched the value of his previous contract (which contained a no-trade clause). Beal's injury issues (he hasn't played more than 53 games in a season since 2020-21) are also the last thing a Kawhi Leonard-led squad needs. But don't let that distract you from the kind of offensive player Beal still is, especially on a $5.5 million salary. He's averaged roughly 18 points and four assists on 60% true shooting over the last two campaigns (including 41% from deep). He should slot in well either between Leonard and James Harden, off the bench, or in two-man actions with Ivica Zubac and Brook Lopez. The Clippers essentially replaced Norman Powell with Beal, Lopez, John Collins, and likely Chris Paul. This team is arguably deeper and more balanced than it's been since acquiring Leonard six years ago.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers' long-term trajectory will come into focus over the coming year, with LeBron James' future and a potential Luka Doncic extension both on the docket for Los Angeles' new ownership group. In the meantime, the current iteration of the squad still has questions. Can Jake LaRavia's 3-and-D upside replace what the team lost when Finney-Smith left for Houston? Can Deandre Ayton be the center Doncic and James need, or will he prove to be as poor a fit as he seems on the surface, given his lack of rim-running and rim protection? Can Doncic and James thrive together? Like the other squads in this tier, I could just as easily see L.A. struggling to emerge from the West play-in tournament as I could it hoisting the Larry O'Brien Trophy. Still, any club starring James and Doncic has at least a puncher's chance.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are having the league's quietest offseason, with the departure of Kevon Looney (Pelicans) the only transaction even loosely linked to Golden State. Meanwhile, uncertainty continues to surround RFA Jonathan Kuminga, whose future with the team remains uncertain. That inactivity and murkiness, coupled with the advanced ages of the Warriors' stars, keep Golden State from full-fledged contention. The Dubs need a center and more rotation-caliber talent, but a full season of Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green would still be enough to keep this team on the fringes. Golden State went 23-7 with Butler in the lineup.
Tier 3: If everything breaks right
Philadelphia 76ers
It can be easy to forget after a 58-loss season, but this is still a squad featuring a recent MVP (Joel Embiid), a young secondary star (Tyrese Maxey), and a six-time All-NBAer who made two straight All-Star teams right before joining the Sixers (Paul George). That two-way trio is perfectly balanced, featuring a guard, a wing, and a big. Third overall pick VJ Edgecombe also adds some tantalizing upside. If Philadelphia's Big Three stays healthy and Edgecombe proves capable of filling a key role as a rookie, the Sixers can compete for a Finals berth, if not a title. The catch? Embiid's body and/or game always fail him when it matters most, Maxey isn't good enough to carry a contender, George just underwent another knee surgery, and Philly doesn't have the depth to survive the eight-month grind to a title.
Milwaukee Bucks
The glass-half-full outlook is that any team with Giannis Antetokounmpo on it has a chance to win, let alone one playing in this hodgepodge of a conference. The Bucks are here for that reason alone. The half-empty view is that the Greek Freak just enjoyed one of his greatest individual seasons - now featuring a mid-range game - for what was a better Bucks team than the one that'll take the floor next season, and Milwaukee still won just 48 games. The acquisition of Myles Turner made headlines, and if it sold Antetokounmpo on a future in Milwaukee, then perhaps it was worth it. But the team's current crop of guards is nowhere near good enough, and Turner and Antetokounmpo have lost a step defensively. Plus, when you factor in the price of Damian Lillard's buyout, the cap- and asset-strapped Bucks are effectively committing $50 million per year to roster Turner.
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas looks like a very deep two-way team boasting a nice blend of veteran know-how and youthful exuberance. If Anthony Davis is still healthy by the time Kyrie Irving returns from a torn ACL and Cooper Flagg is as NBA-ready as advertised, the Mavs will have the top-end talent and depth required to win in today's NBA. However, that still feels like a lot of "ifs." Davis has cracked the 65-game mark just once over the last seven years, Irving's track record of reliability is even worse, and Flagg is 18 years old. That's likely too much to overcome in the unforgiving West.
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies were an 8-seed before trading Desmond Bane, and Ja Morant still has plenty of work to do to regain the public's trust, so some will surely bristle at the notion Memphis is a contender of any sort. But Morant has consistently been a game-changer when healthy and available, while Jaren Jackson Jr. has emerged as one of the league's best two-way big men. Additionally, sophomore guard Jaylen Wells, Ty Jerome, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope should be able to replace most of what Bane and sharpshooter Luke Kennard provided. Memphis also has an intriguing crop of youngsters in the mix, and the Bane deal left it with even more trade capital. If head coach Tuomas Iisalo's pick-and-roll-heavy system reignites Morant and the Grizzlies can leverage those assets wisely, look out.
Tier 4: Hey, it's the East 🤷
Orlando Magic
The Magic are like the discount version of the Rockets but have the benefit of playing in the far inferior conference. Orlando already had a second-ranked defense buoyed by tremendous size in its frontcourt and Jalen Suggs in the backcourt, though the team lacked the shooting, self-creation, and pure point guard play necessary to succeed. Enter Bane, a borderline All-Star, and veteran caretaker Tyus Jones. If those two play up to their usual offensive standards while Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner continue to improve, Orlando can beat anyone in the wide-open East.
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks have quietly been building a better defensive and off-ball infrastructure around Trae Young in recent years. They continued that trend this summer by adding Kristaps Porzingis, Alexander-Walker, and Kennard. If rising star Jalen Johnson can finally stay healthy, Atlanta has the pieces to compete with the likes of Cleveland, New York, and whoever else emerges as an Eastern threat. This supporting cast is the best Young has had, and we've already seen him do more with less in the playoffs.
Detroit Pistons
Cade Cunningham made a franchise-changing star leap last season, while the Pistons accrued some postseason battle scars. Detroit also did well to land Duncan Robinson and Caris LeVert to replace the movement shooting and creation previously provided by Malik Beasley and Hardaway Jr. Meanwhile, Ausar Thompson has Most Improved Player potential, and Jaden Ivey should be good to go after recovering from a broken fibula. The Pistons won't catch anyone napping again this season, but they at least deserve a place on this list.
Tier 5: The unicorn factor
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs are unlikely to contend this year, even with a full season of De'Aaron Fox and contributions from rookies Dylan Harper and Carter Bryant. But Victor Wembanyama's time is coming. If the 7-foot-3 Frenchman makes the MVP-level leap he's capable of, San Antonio will ascend along with him.
Honorable mentions: The Celtics and Pacers won't have championship upside without Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton, but both teams still have the talent, resilience, and coaching to make things interesting if they want to (rather than chasing lottery odds). I wouldn't be shocked if a career year from Jaylen Brown keeps Joe Mazzulla's Celtics competitive. As for Indiana, the combination of Pascal Siakam, a group of scrappy two-way players, and Rick Carlisle won't be a pushover.
Joseph Casciaro is theScore's lead NBA and Raptors reporter.