Assessing the KAT-Randle trade after Year 1

After completing one of the most interesting trades in recent NBA history on the eve of training camp, it's fitting that the New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves saw their seasons end at the same stage of the playoffs. And the fact both teams reached the finals of their respective conferences makes the deal feel like a win-win, at least in the short term.

A single season is rarely a referendum on the success or failure of a trade, especially when one of the players involved is an impending free agent and long-term flexibility was a primary motivating factor for one of the teams. But this still feels like a good time to reflect on the deal that sent Karl-Anthony Towns to New York in exchange for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo, with a particular focus on the two power forwards. (And yes, I still consider Towns at least part power forward.)

First off, both Towns and Randle had tremendous seasons. Towns was much better for the balance of the regular season, averaging 24.4 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 3.1 assists on 53/42/83 splits (63% true shooting), earning an All-Star berth and being named to the All-NBA third team. His presence as a spacer and pick-and-pop weapon, along with his dogged work as a driver and interior finisher, were massive contributors to the Knicks' top-five offense. They scored seven more points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. Even in his up-and-down series against the Pacers, he was brilliant offensively, punishing size mismatches when he wasn't torching Myles Turner off the bounce.

Randle's counting stats were less impressive - 18.7, 7.1, and 4.7 on 59% true shooting - but he adapted significantly after a rocky start to his Wolves career and played a central role in the team's second-half surge, during which Minnesota ranked top seven on both sides of the ball. He arguably outperformed Towns across the first two rounds of the playoffs.

For two players with fairly distinct styles, Towns and Randle share a lot of similarities. They're both extremely skilled offensive bigs who are capable of strong defensive stretches but too often undercut themselves on that end with inconsistent effort and lapses in focus. They both had shaky playoff track records until recently; Towns conquered many of those demons in Minnesota a year ago and continued to excel as a Knick, while Randle had his long-awaited playoff breakthrough in his first season as a Timberwolf.

We also saw both of them succumb to some of their worst habits and impulses at the tail end of their otherwise excellent, narrative-shifting postseason runs. For Towns, that meant a cavalcade of silly fouls along with schematic mistakes and breakdowns in pick-and-roll defense. For Randle, it meant sluggish offensive decision-making that led to ugly turnovers and bled into his effort level at the other end.

Those bad habits are why these are two of the most polarizing players in the league, with volatile performance swings that sway people's perception of them from one game to the next. For just one rudimentary example, consider Randle's conference finals series against Oklahoma City: He averaged 25.3 points on 62% shooting in the odd-numbered games, and 5.5 points on 17% shooting - with three times as many turnovers as made field goals - in the even games.

If I'm making a value judgment, I still like the deal a bit better from the Knicks' end. It raised their ceiling and gave them a legit shot at making the Finals that I don't think they would've had otherwise. Both teams benefited from significant injuries to their opponents in the second round, with Steph Curry and Jayson Tatum both going down, but New York was already effectively up 3-1 in that series when Tatum got hurt, while Minnesota was scuffling in the first half of an eventual Game 1 loss when Curry hobbled off the court. It's easier for me to believe the Wolves would've gotten to the same stage with Towns than it is to believe the Knicks would've put the healthy Celtics on the ropes with Randle and DiVincenzo in his place.

Towns actually held up reasonably well on switches in that Celtics series, even before Tatum's injury. And more importantly, he was able to anchor the back line and protect the rim effectively (holding Boston to 36.8% shooting at the rim), thus giving New York the benefit of frontcourt spacing at the offensive end. Randle wouldn't have been able to do that. Minnesota struggled throughout the season and especially in the playoffs when he played without Rudy Gobert.

At the same time, Randle was genuinely great at both ends against the Lakers and Warriors. It's fair to wonder if the Wolves could've made such quick work of those teams if Towns had been the one tasked with containing LeBron James and Luka Doncic in primary matchups and ball-screen coverage in the first round, or if he'd been the one faced with solving Draymond Green's defense in the second.

There's also the fact that, outside of that Celtics series, Towns struggled defensively at center. He went from playing just 37% of his minutes at the five in his last season in Minnesota to playing 97% of his minutes there this year, according to Cleaning the Glass. And his defensive field-goal percentage at the rim was third worst among qualified big men during the regular season. (Randle's was fourth worst.)

Once Mitchell Robinson returned in the final month of the season, we started to see Towns playing the four next to him with increasing regularity, and the results suggested that was the right move. The Knicks posted a plus-8.3 net rating in 165 minutes with Towns and Robinson on court together during the playoffs, compared to minus-3.3 with Towns as the lone big, per PBP Stats. It's a conundrum that's dogged Towns for basically his entire career; he can't be quite as effective offensively as a four, but his teams tend to have a hard ceiling defensively with him as a full-time five.

The Wolves faced the same dilemma, and eventually decided - correctly, it turned out - that the latter was a more important consideration than the former. Part of the reason it made sense for them to trade for Gobert was that the need to insulate Towns with defense-first wings meant he was rarely being guarded by centers anyway. The Knicks now have to decide what the optimal positional balance for Towns is, and how they can achieve that balance. It might be their most pressing roster-building question.

Both teams are in tricky spots with their mercurial stars, for different reasons: The Knicks because Towns is owed $171 million over the next three years (assuming he exercises his 2027-28 player option) and will likely be looking for an extension, and the Wolves because Randle is likely to decline his $31-million player option and become a free agent.

Tax penalties loom for both, but the Knicks are in a more comfortable spot. They're a few million under the first apron with their top seven rotation players all under contract. The Wolves, meanwhile, have to wrangle with the free agencies of Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker on top of Randle's, and they probably can't re-sign all three without blowing past the second apron for a second straight year.

Considering that long-term salary relief seemed to be a major impetus for the trade, it's hard to imagine Minnesota immediately consigning itself to tax hell. But losing any of those three free agents for nothing would be a huge blow, and losing Randle would be particularly damaging to a team that's already precariously light on secondary creation beside Anthony Edwards. I'm not sure Reid is fully ready to step into his role. And that's to say nothing of the optics of letting Randle walk a year after acquiring him in exchange for a franchise pillar.

Maybe there's still a way this works out for Minnesota, with Randle picking up his option or re-signing at a discounted rate due to a lack of free-agent suitors. Maybe there's a sign-and-trade deal out there that can help the Wolves get financially leaner while remaining deep and versatile. Maybe there's even a deal that can land them Kevin Durant.

They have to hope at least one of those scenarios comes to pass. Because for all Towns' flaws, and for as jarring as the sticker shock of his contract might be, I'd rather be the team paying him 35% of the cap for his age 30-32 seasons than the one that gave him away either for one year of Randle or for the right to pay Randle slightly less money.

So, there are a lot of different facets to consider in all this, including the fact that DiVincenzo (who's locked up on a bargain contract for two more seasons) helped make depth a strength for Minnesota while New York was left feeling pretty thin. That makes it difficult to declare a winner or loser of this trade after Year 1. The picture will get a lot clearer as the deal ages, starting immediately with what happens this offseason.