Stats, team success, story arc, and defining moments determine an MVP season in the NBA. Many voters have admitted that the narrative surrounding a player and team impacts their votes. As a result, the deck may be stacked against Nuggets center Nikola Jokic, who has won three of the last four MVP awards and is in the race for the fifth consecutive year.
Voter fatigue is a real phenomenon in MVP considerations, which explains why LeBron James only has four trophies even though his reign as the league's best player spanned beyond those four seasons. Jokic's best chance to repeat as the award winner is to reach heights he hasn't before. Somehow, he's doing just that with career highs in points (28.9), assists (10.5), and 3-point percentage (43%). Earlier this week, Jokic said he's playing the best basketball of his life. It still may not be enough.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander entered the season with the second-best MVP odds (+400) behind Luka Doncic (+375) and above Jokic (+460) on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet. Jokic emerged as the front-runner in early December, gaining a substantial lead on Gilgeous-Alexander as a -115 favorite compared to the Thunder guard's +400 price. But as the next month unfolded, Gilgeous-Alexander's brilliance, coinciding with the Thunder's historical dominance, gave him the edge. SGA was a -550 favorite when January rolled around, while Jokic was +350.
This last week featured multiple key moments that typically decide these races, including Jokic's own historic outing. The Serbian center had 31 points, 22 assists, and 21 rebounds in an overtime win against the Suns on Friday night. He became the first player in NBA history to record a 30-20-20 triple-double. Gilgeous-Alexander entered the day as a -700 favorite, while Jokic was +400. Following Jokic's remarkable performance, the gap shrunk as he moved to +230 and Gilgeous-Alexander fell to -350.
Two days later, the Thunder handily defeated the Nuggets on national television. Gilgeous-Alexander scored 40 points, and Jokic was held to nine second-half points. The odds reverted to -700 and +400 for Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic, respectively.
The next day, Denver and Oklahoma City met again. The Nuggets prevailed in Monday's rematch, moving the odds to -475 for the Thunder guard and +300 for the Nuggets center, where they currently sit.
| Moment/Date | Gilgeous-Alexander MVP odds | Jokic MVP odds |
|---|---|---|
| March 6 | -700 | +400 |
| Jokic 30-20-20 game | -350 | +230 |
| Thunder beat Nuggets (Gilgeous-Alexander scores 40) | -700 | +400 |
| Nuggets beat Thunder in rematch the following day | -475 | +300 |
While key matchups and performances alter the odds, oddsmakers are clearly adamant that Gilgeous-Alexander remains the considerable favorite. However, almost 80% of the money wagered on the MVP award over the last week has been on Jokic, and he's garnered 35% of the handle (money wagered) throughout the season compared to 27% on Gilgeous-Alexander. Is the Thunder superstar's lead as wide as the odds indicate?
The Nuggets are the 2-seed in the West and have the league's fourth-best record. Jokic has dished the league's second-most assists and is tied for sixth in 3-point percentage among players who average at least four attempts per game. Let me remind you that Jokic is a 6-foot-11 center who can barely jump over a piece of paper. That shooting and passing combination from an unathletic big man has never existed in the NBA.
Jokic's value to his team is greater than anyone's in the league. He leads the NBA in player impact estimate, an advanced stat that measures a player's overall contribution to a game. Gilgeous-Alexander is close behind with the second-highest rating. ESPN's new advanced statistic, net points, evaluates how much a player contributes to the team's point differential. Unsurprisingly, Jokic is first and Gilgeous-Alexander is second in those rankings as well.
When Jokic is on the court, the Nuggets outscore opponents by 10.9 points per 100 possessions, tied for the league's second-best net rating behind the Thunder. When Jokic sits, the Nuggets are outscored by 9.4 points per 100 possessions - the NBA's second-worst net rating, ahead of only the Wizards.
The drop-off isn't as drastic (although still massive) when Gilgeous-Alexander sits because of the Thunder's depth and talent. Oklahoma City outscores opponents by 16.9 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, which is the NBA's best net rating. When he sits, the Thunder outscore opponents by 2.9 points per 100 possessions, which is still a top-10 net rating.
Assessing value solely with on/off splits, the Nuggets fall from a championship contender with Jokic to a team vying for the top pick without him. The Thunder are the favorites in the West with Gilgeous-Alexander but are still an above-average squad without him.
However, Gilgeous-Alexander's remarkable individual season and team success will resonate with voters. He's the best player on a team that's on pace for at least 65 wins and currently has the second-best net rating in NBA history behind the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls.
SGA leads the league in scoring with 32.7 points per game. He's the best three-level scorer with incredible efficiency around the rim, from mid-range, and from three. He's also the NBA's most effective pick-and-roll scorer (1.13 points per possession), the most effective transition scorer (1.24 points per possession), and the fourth-most effective isolation scorer (1.08 points per possession).
Gilgeous-Alexander has 40 30-point games, 11 40-point games, and four 50-point games, and he's scored at least 20 points in 59 straight contests. It's hard to dispute his consistency, efficiency, and winning.
Many voters have suggested they won't decide until the season's final week. Both players have compelling cases and are worthy of the honor. But it's hard to imagine Gilgeous-Alexander fumbling an award he's seemingly due to earn, considering Jokic already has three on his mantel.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.
