NBA betting tiers: Eastern Conference win total projections

The NBA season opener is days away. In our Eastern Conference betting picture breakdown, we separated the 15 teams into four categories based on win totals and offered our lean for each of them. Here are the tiers:

• True contenders

• Finals long shots

• Play-in hopefuls

• Capture the Flagg

True contenders

Boston Celtics

The Celtics are the overwhelming favorites to become the first back-to-back champion since the Warriors did it in 2017 and 2018. They had the NBA's best net rating since the 2017-18 Warriors and returned their entire core, including superstar Jayson Tatum. Although Kristaps Porzingis will miss the first few months, Boston has enough talent to overcome his absence - the team went 31-6 in the regular season and playoffs without him.

The Celtics might not win 64 games again, but there shouldn't be much regression.

Bet: Over 58.5 wins

New York Knicks

The Knicks had their first 50-win campaign in over a decade and followed it up with a monumental offseason, acquiring Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns while shipping off Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo. New York might now have the league's best offensive starting five.

But the Knicks lack depth - especially without Mitchell Robinson for the first few months and the injury history of Towns and OG Anunoby. They have no reliable bench players other than Miles McBride.

Bet: Under 54.5 wins

Philadelphia 76ers

This is the best Sixers team Joel Embiid has suited up with in his nine years in Philly, thanks in large part to the addition of Paul George. The Sixers can withstand his inevitable regular-season absences with a strong support cast that includes Tyrese Maxey, George, and loads of depth players.

Bet: Over 52.5 wins

Milwaukee Bucks

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard had the fourth-most efficient pick-and-roll offense but ranked closer to the middle in pick-and-roll possessions. The elite duo should improve on those numbers but, beyond that, the Bucks have an aging roster. Brook Lopez is 36 years old, and injuries have made 33-year-old Khris Middleton an unreliable third option - he hasn't played 70 games since 2018-19. Milwaukee's only roster upgrade was adding Gary Trent Jr.

Bet: Under 50.5 wins

Finals long shots

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs won 48 games last season even though Donovan Mitchell missed 27 contests, Darius Garland missed 25, and Evan Mobley missed 32. New coach Kenny Atkinson should help them improve their pace, which ranked eighth-slowest in the NBA last year.

Mobley, in particular, became a willing shooter down the stretch last season, attempting almost two threes per game in the final two months after shooting almost none in the opening months. His ability to stretch the floor with his three could be the difference between a first-round exit and a playoff run.

Bet: Over 48.5 wins

Orlando Magic

While 3-point shooting is at a premium, the Magic made the fewest triples in 2023-24. As a result, they had the worst offense among playoff teams. They won 47 games because of their third-best defense.

Free agent addition Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - a 41% 3-point shooter over the last two seasons - should provide offensive reinforcements. But Orlando needs its stars Franz Wagner (28% from three) and Paolo Banchero (33% from three) to evolve into more efficient shooters.

Bet: Under 47.5 wins, miss the playoffs +450

Indiana Pacers

The conference finals fallacy - when a team makes a fluke run and people believe it's close to championship contention - haunted the Hawks in 2021, the Mavs in 2022, and the Lakers in 2023. Each team regressed the following season. Last year, the Pacers won 47 games and earned the sixth seed before making the conference finals, but expect them to follow a similar path as the aforementioned clubs.

Bet: Under 46.5

Miami Heat

Jimmy Butler finally has an incentive to care about the regular season: He's 35 years old and on an expiring contract. The Heat didn't offer him an extension because of his age and unreliability - he hasn't played more than 65 games since 2016-17, three teams ago. If he wants a new deal, he'll have to prove his value.

Meanwhile, Bam Adebayo is one of the league's best two-way centers, Tyler Herro showed growth as a playmaker and more efficient scorer, and a full campaign of Terry Rozier playing point guard should have the Heat in contention for a top-four seed.

Bet: Over 44.5 wins

Play-in hopefuls

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks won 36 contests in 2023-24 even though Trae Young missed 28 games. Dejounte Murray carried the load in Young's absence - but Atlanta traded him to the Pelicans. Jalen Johnson took a big step, but the Hawks have a shortage of win-now players. They're destined for another play-in appearance.

Bet: Pass

Charlotte Hornets

Brandon Miller showed flashes of excellence as a three-level scorer in the latter half of his rookie campaign. He thrived with the ball in his hands, so it'll be an adjustment carrying that success over to playing alongside ball-dominant LaMelo Ball for a full season. But it's a good starting point for the Hornets, who have a solid blend of veterans like Miles Bridges and Grant Williams and young talent.

Bet: Over 30.5 wins, make the playoffs +475

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors have some exciting pieces in Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, and Immanuel Quickley, among other young players. They're far from competing for a playoff spot, but they should improve on their 25 wins last season.

Bet: Over 29.5 wins

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls have been mediocre of late, qualifying for the play-in but missing the playoffs the last two seasons. But mediocrity might finally transition to downright misery.

Chicago shipped off Alex Caruso and let DeMar DeRozan walk, signaling a rebuild. It'll be surprising if Zach LaVine is on the roster past the trade deadline.

Bet: Under 28.5 wins

Capture the Flagg

Detroit Pistons

Luckily for the Pistons, the league's bottom three teams have the same odds of landing the No. 1 pick. While the Pistons project better than the Wizards and Nets, they can remain in the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes while developing young players like Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, and Cade Cunningham, who just inked a massive extension.

Bet: Pass

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have lost their three preseason games by an average margin of 29. It'll be a long year in Washington. Kyle Kuzma or Jordan Poole (or maybe both) will likely be traded away.

Bet: Under 20.5 wins

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets got their future first-round picks back, and their rebuild is underway. The chase for Flagg - one of the best American prospects in years - is on.

Bet: Under 19.5 wins

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.