Bet or Bail: Clippers' downfall, Jalen Green's surging Rockets

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After a one-week hiatus for the NCAA Tournament's opening week, we're back with another NBA edition of Bet or Bail. Most teams have around 10 games left before the playoffs begin, yet there's much to sort out before the seeding and play-in tournament matchups are official.

Let's dive into two trends: Jalen Green leading a late-season Rockets surge, and the Clippers' recent skid.

Bet on Green's surging Rockets

There are two versions of Jalen Green: the bucket-getter, pure shotmaker, and Kobe-esque iteration; and the inefficient, shot-chucking, JR Smith-like version. Both spectrums are hyperbolic comparisons, of course, but Green's been the latter more often than the former so far in his young career.

However, over the last month, he's shown enough glimpses of the former to give Rockets fans hope. Green's put together the best 30-day stretch of his career since he entered the league in 2021, rejuvenating the Rockets' dying season.

Green's averaging 28.5 points on 42.9% shooting from three and 50% shooting from the floor in March, up from his season averages of 19.8 points on 34% from three and 42% from the field. He's surpassed his 3-point prop in seven straight games.

It's no coincidence Green's career-best month has transformed a sleepy Rockets group into the league's hottest team; Houston's 13-1 in March and covered the spread in 13 of their last 14 games. The Rockets trail the Warriors by one game for the West's 10th seed and a play-in tournament ticket.

Houston is +700 (bet $10 to win $70) to make the playoffs and +410 to make the play-in (Golden State owns the tiebreaker).

Efficiency issues have marred Green's career so far. He has the eighth-worst effective field-goal percentage among 93 players who average at least 30 minutes. In March, though, Green ranks in the top 10 in effective field-goal percentage.

Green's net rating in March is a whopping 18.2, only the second month he's had a positive net rating. Until March, the Rockets had been slightly better with Green on the bench.

Green and the Rockets are streaking without Alperen Sengun, who's been out with an ankle injury since March 10. It's fair to wonder if Sengun's absence helps Green, whose usage rate hasn't changed, but whose efficiency has increased without the Turkish center.

While Green's electric play has helped the Rockets increase their win total by 15 (and counting) from last season, it's also created uncertainty for their future.

The G League Ignite product is eligible for a contract extension this offseason. Will the Rockets throw a large financial commitment at him after three up-and-down years? Or will they let him hit restricted free agency the following summer? The Rockets will likely offer franchise cornerstone Sengun a hefty extension this summer, which leaves Green in an even more peculiar spot.

The Rockets must decide if Green's March was a blip on the radar, or if this is his true ceiling. They also need to know if he can continue to develop alongside Sengun. For now, though, Houston can sneak past the wobbling Warriors and compete for a playoff spot.

What's wrong with the Clippers?

The Clippers are 11-12 over their last 23 games and 1-10 in their last 11 against top-six teams in either conference. They're 6-17 against the spread in that time.

In early February, the Clippers briefly held the West's top seed, and their odds to win the West were +250, only slightly longer than the Nuggets'. L.A. is now fourth in the West, five games back of third, its odds lengthening but still second best at +310 (Denver's +140).

Oddsmakers expect the Clippers' talent to figure it out when the playoffs roll around and revert to the team that went 12-3 in January.

Maybe the Clippers are talented enough to flip a switch and turn up the intensity when the postseason arrives. But this group has no championship pedigree beyond Kawhi Leonard, so there's no reason to give L.A. the benefit of the doubt.

The Clippers' defensive intensity propelled their January run; L.A. had a top-10 defensive rating that month, which has slipped to 27th in March. That's a referendum on effort, which coach Ty Lou has acknowledged: he called his team "soft" following their Monday loss to the Pacers.

It's also led to a barrage of overs. Nine of L.A.'s last 12 games have gone over the total.

The Clippers run the NBA's most isolation plays, which puts the onus on their stars to create shots for themselves. Leonard and James Harden rank in the top 10 in isolation possessions per game, and that works when they're producing at a high level, but their offensive production has dipped over the last month.

Leonard's scoring is slightly down in March and he's struggling with his three ball, converting on 29% of his attempts, significantly lower than his season average (41%). He's gone under his points prop and 3-point prop in eight of the last 11 games.

When the Clippers were the No. 1 seed, Leonard was in MVP contention. He's played 66 regular-season games, his most since 2016-17. There could be some fatigue settling in as the season comes down the stretch, or Leonard may be coasting before he gears up for a crucial playoff run. The Clippers are in trouble if it's the former.

Harden's scoring and shooting percentages are down, too. He's gone under his points prop - usually set around 16.5 - in 10 of the last 11 games. Russell Westbrook returned to the lineup Monday in his usual bench role after missing three weeks.

If the season ended today, the Clippers would play the Pelicans in the opening round. L.A. would be favored and its talent alone may be enough to escape a seven-game series.

It's possible the Clippers advance from there, but only if their defensive intensity heightens and their superstars get back to playing like ones. But the last month has lowered the Clippers' ceiling.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.